These 4 Stocks Are Safe Bets To Outperform The Market In 2016

Goldman Sachs came out this week and stated it saw little upside for the overall market during the next 12 months. This confirms the same view I have articulated on these pages since the back half of 2015. The overall market sells at a bit over historical valuations which would be fine if we were seeing decent growth both from an economic and earnings perspective. Unfortunately, that growth has not materialized at the present moment.

Global demand sits at levels not seen since 2009, and both the European and Japanese central banks are experimenting with negative interest rate policies to ignite growth and with little result so far. Domestically, GDP posted just a .5% reading in the first quarter. Although, growth should pick up in coming quarters; we are still looking at below trend growth in what continues to be the bleakest post-war recovery recorded here in the United States.

Companies struggle to produce any kind of profit growth. In addition to anemic worldwide demand, firms are dealing with a dollar that has appreciated markedly over the past year and a half and the collapse in demand from the energy and mining sectors. Operating margins are coming down from all-time highs as well. This should continue thanks to increases in compliance costs as well as various minimum wage hike movements. The second quarter should be the fifth quarter in a row that earnings within the S&P 500 fall collectively on a year-over-year basis. It will be the sixth straight quarter of negative revenue growth.

So, what is an investor to do within a market that has little collective upside over the next 12 months? I think it is time to go “Old School” with one’s equity allocation. What do I mean by that? Simply put, this involves tilting your portfolio to concentrate on solid companies that pay generous dividends. This may seem quaint now but up until the “Nifty Fifty” days of the late 60s and early 70s, the majority of returns within the market were made up of dividend payments, not capital appreciation. Over the past 40 or so years, that has flipped with the market constantly enamored by the Amazon’s, Facebook’s, and Google’s of the market that provided significant growth at a pricey valuation and with no dividends.

In this market, a stock that provides little to no capital appreciation but a juicy three to five percent dividend could easily put you ahead of the game over the next year. So, what looks like some good “old school” picks in the market right now?

Well, it's hard to get more old school than giving a “shout out” to two automakers that have been around for more than a century. However, Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) certainly fit the playbill. Both stocks sell for 35% to 40% of the overall market multiple and both equities yield north of four percent as well. Each company will continue to benefit from a robust sales mix that is tilting to high-margin trucks and SUVs thanks to lower gasoline prices in the States. Both manufacturers are also taking market share in China through their joint ventures. This is crucial to their long-term success as the Middle Kingdom has become and will remain the largest vehicle market in the world. Improvement in their European operations has lifted their businesses as well.

Going a little more “21st Century” with our next selection. Xenia Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: XHR) is a lodging real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns a diversified portfolio of high-quality lodging properties. Just under 90% of its rooms are operated by industry leaders as Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Starwood, and Kimpton. This REIT owns 50 hotels comprising just over 12,500 rooms. These include 48 properties that are wholly owned, comprised of premium full-service lifestyle and urban upscale hotels.

One of the first things that stood out about Xenia is its seven percent yield which negates any need for capital appreciation to produce a nice return over the next year. Although, I do not think that will be the case. FFO (Funds from Operations) per share came in at slightly less than $1.75 in FY2015 but is on track for $2.25 this fiscal year and the consensus has $2.40 to $2.50 in the cards for FY2017. With the stock selling for slightly less than $15.00 a share, Xenia is a great combination of yield, growth, and value. Insiders bought numerous chunks of stock late in 2015 at slightly higher prices so management would tend to concur with that opinion.

Finally, we have a stock I have mentioned before on these pages, Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN). The company has beaten quarterly profit expectations for nine straight quarters now, a real rarity in this market. In addition, this biotech stalwart lifted its dividend payout by more than 25% earlier in the year and now yields close to three percent. Despite churning out consistent revenue and earnings growth, the stock sells at a discount to the overall market multiple.

All of these stocks should continue to churn out a decent modicum of growth while delivering solid dividend payouts. That makes them good old school picks that should outdistance what is likely to remain a challenging market.

 

Disclosure: Positions: Long AMGN, F, GM, and ...

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