Investment Advisor Blog | Signs Of Topping In The Consumer Credit Cycle | Talkmarkets - Page 2

Signs Of Topping In The Consumer Credit Cycle

Date: Thursday, January 24, 2019 1:28 PM EDT

Given that the credit reporting companies get paid by the lenders, not consumers, it stands to reason that when approached by their customers to refine their scoring methodologies, they were amenable to the idea. Kind of reminds me of the scene in the movie The Big Short when the Standard and Poor’s employee explains why they rated all of those sub-prime mortgage bonds triple-A; “because if we didn’t give them the ratings they wanted, they would go down the street to our competitor.”

The signs of a topping credit cycle don’t end there, unfortunately. It appears unconventional mortgage underwriting is making a comeback as well:

“Aryanna Hering didn’t have pay stubs or tax forms to document her income when she shopped around for a mortgage last year—a problem that made it tough for her to get a loan. But the nursing student who works part time providing home care for children and the elderly eventually hit pay dirt: For a roughly $610,000 home loan, a mortgage company let her verify her earnings with 12 months of bank statements and letters from clients. Ms. Hering said money she collects from roommates and from renting to Airbnb guests covers more than two-thirds of her roughly $4,300 in monthly payments, and her earnings cover the rest.”

While not a large proportion of the overall home lending pool, these types of loans are growing quickly:

“Lenders issued $34 billion of these unconventional mortgages in the first three quarters of 2018, a 24% increase from the same period a year earlier, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry research group. While that makes up less than 3% of the $1.3 trillion of mortgage originations over that period, the growth is notable because it came as traditional home loans declined. Those originations fell 1.2% over the same period and were on track for a second down year in 2018.”

So what exactly were the terms of the loan Ms. Hering received? Tell me if this sounds familiar:

View single page >> |
Disclaimer: This and other personal blog posts are not reviewed, monitored or endorsed by TalkMarkets. The content is solely the view of the author and TalkMarkets is not responsible for the content of this post in any way. Our curated content which is handpicked by our editorial team may be viewed here.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.
Moon Kil Woong 2 years ago Contributor's comment

The economy and stock market look fine for another year or so right now after overcoming a rough patch with tariff, shutdown, rising inflation, Federal Reserve tightening, and slowing growth intrigue. Hopefully, this next year will be calmer.

Followers (1)

Stocks I follow

AAPL Apple Inc.
AMZN Amazon.com Inc.
ATVI Activision Blizzard Inc
BABA Alibaba

General Stats

Article Comments

Received: 17
Created: 0