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Unlimited Stock Valuation With Low Interest Rates?
Thursday, August 6, 2020 7:20 PM EDT
Both the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were strong. In fact, they were stronger than their headlines indicated because of the negative impact of inventories/supplier deliveries.
In this article: AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, SPX
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US Stock Market More Extreme Than In March
Wednesday, August 5, 2020 5:01 PM EDT
The Fed doesn’t want to disrupt the stock market. That could create negative consequences. The problem is the more important the stock market gets, the worse a correction would be for the everyday person.
In this article: AAPL, MSFT, SPY, SPX
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Unusual Variable For Labor Market Recovery
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 10:30 PM EDT
Caring for children not in school or at daycare was the 3rd most common reason people weren’t at work from May to July. It’s no surprise that the share of people not working due to child care more than tripled from before the pandemic.
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FAMANG Controls The Market
Monday, August 3, 2020 4:39 PM EDT
The stock market is very overbought if you look at the put to call ratio. Investors around the world are piling into a few stocks which is a classic sign of a market top.
In this article: AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, NFLX, META, GOOGL
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Is A 12% Decline In Jobless Claims Good Enough?
Friday, July 31, 2020 9:48 PM EDT
The jobless claims report was actually good for once as PUAs and regular unadjusted claims fell.
In this article: AAPL, AMZN, META, SPX, GOOGL
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What Are Markets Pricing In?
Thursday, July 30, 2020 8:52 PM EDT
Investors seek optionality and resilience. Optionality means there is more than one way to win. Resilience means the business model has a moat.
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How Low Can Yields Go?
Wednesday, July 29, 2020 7:58 PM EDT
The total global negative-yielding debt is increasing. U.S. Treasury yields are very low partially because of the cyclical weakness. That might change in the coming months as another stimulus is coming and COVID-19 cases are falling.
In this article: IEF
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Are Markets Priced To Perfection?
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 3:00 PM EDT
A diversified portfolio of gold, cash, bonds, and stocks just had its best 90-day return ever. Real yields are at a record low. Investors expect zero Fed rates for a few years.
In this article: IAU, GDX, GLD, SLV, NDX, SPX, CLOU
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Is This An L-Shaped Recovery?
Monday, July 27, 2020 4:00 PM EDT
There was a V-shaped recovery in housing as new home sales in June hit a 13 year high, but there wasn’t a V-shaped recovery in the labor market even though the May and June labor reports were very good.
In this article: SPX
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Is The Labor Market Going To Be Weak For The Long-Term?
Friday, July 24, 2020 8:30 PM EDT
We have been reporting on the weak jobless claims readings for 6 weeks now. This latest report ended the record-long 15-week decline in seasonally adjusted initial claims.
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US Economy Is Flatlining
Thursday, July 23, 2020 8:44 PM EDT
The consumer is headed in the wrong direction which shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s actually surprising that it hasn’t weakened further.
In this article: NDX
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S&P 500 Is Inverse Of The Economy
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 11:58 PM EDT
This market is on a whole different level. Investors take fiscal and monetary stimulus as a given.
In this article: GLD, IEF, IWM, SLV
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Greater Greed Than 1990s Tech Bubble
Wednesday, July 22, 2020 8:47 AM EDT
There is some extreme optimism in the big internet stocks and the cloud stocks in general. That doesn’t mean a top is near.
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Will There Be A Mean Revision In Margins?
Monday, July 20, 2020 11:00 PM EDT
Bearish investors have been calling for a decline in margins for years. They are referring to a long term mean reversion, not a short term cyclical decline like we are seeing now.
In this article: SPX
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Another Bad Week For The Labor Market
Thursday, July 16, 2020 8:54 PM EDT
The labor market weakened for the 3rd straight week according to the household pulse survey. Auto and mortgage lending spiked in June for JP Morgan.
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Optimism On Stock Dividends Increases
Wednesday, July 15, 2020 9:10 PM EDT
Stock buybacks fell in Q2, but stocks rose. The expectations for future dividends have improved as sentiment on corporate earnings has swung from pessimistic to optimistic.
In this article: SPX
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