Todd Sullivan Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Hedge Fund Manager, Blogger and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners

Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future ... more

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Railroad Earnings Contrast Market Pessimism
The contrast between market psychology and the current economic trend is what produces an investment opportunity. Kansas City Southern report this morning is one of many which define the current pace of economic activity.
5-Year Average Vs Weekly Crude Inventories
Most investors seem to be very short-term focused and miss the obvious seasonality that comes from being a long-term investor. Short-term gasoline inventories do not provide the guidance many attribute.
Predicting Market Prices Is Simply Trying To Predict Market Phycology
Market predictions! Everyone has one. So many predictions that the media will always find someone to tout at any point in time they can label as ‘correct’.
Markets Panic While Economics, Insiders And Valuation Indicate Buying Opportunity
With the rise in global wealth, US markets are increasingly influenced by perceptions of foreign investors. These investors, for the most part, are price-trend followers.
Retail Sales, Personal Income And Recessions
It’s important to note, the economy, not the market indicate recessions. Retail sales, for example are one such indicator.
S&P 4,245?
Just as the recent bout of excessive pessimism can have an unusual discount pricing impact, what occurs near the end of the market cycle is often excessively optimistic.
Media Missteps On Gasoline
Gasoline inventories begin a rise every year from Dec lows into Feb/Mar peak for summer driving demand.
Time To Buy?
Most investors are confused by sell-offs. Sharp declines are scary and result in further panic selling.
The Economic Uptrend Continues
Employment growth continues to trend higher and vehicle sales continue to be maintained at levels reflecting replacement and new additions characteristic of a strong and steady economic expansion.
Opportunity… Not Concern
History shows it is the T-Bill/10yr Treasury rate spread which is most important and most reliable. Today we see 0.60% when 0.20% is the historical level for credit extension pull-back and the inability to refinance riskier credits.
Another Non-Recessionary Data Point
People can’t seem to grasp the fact the stock market does not predict recessions. Hard economic data points do; and right now, none are pointing to a recession.
Hold? Fold? Buy?
Price trend investors dominate market thinking with widely accepted serious misperceptions.
Market Psychology & Fundamentals Mismatched
Inspire of the loud, very loud shouting of a pending economic collapse by CNBC anchors and well-known billionaire investors (actually they are Momentum Traders), the economic data indicates all will be surprised to the upside.
Refinery Inputs Near Seasonal Low… Oil Inventories Grow… For Now
A lot of forecasts for recession are coupled to the fall in ‘oil prices’ which some investors tie to a slowing economy with the same simple interpretation of "Dr. Copper".
Mortgage Credit About To Surge?
Mortgage credit or lack thereof has been a drag on this economy. Housing starts are still nowhere near where they need to be and Dodd/Frank is the culprit.
The VIX And Investment Timing
Today, economic activity is in a strong uptrend and market psychology believes a recession is imminent. A strong investment opportunity for higher prices is present.
1 to 16 of 373 Posts
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