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Philly Fed - Non-Manufacturing Index Craters To Lowest Level Since October 2011
Interestingly, even though the Empire Fed manufacturing reading was very strong and other soft economic reports have been weak, the Philly Fed manufacturing report was strong.
Netflix Reports Weak Guidance As It Ramps Content Spending
The stock market rallied again on Thursday. S&P 500 was up 0.76%, the Nasdaq increased 0.71%, and the Russell 2000 increased 0.86%. The stock market is very overbought.
Global Economic Political Policy - Highest Uncertainty In Over 20 Years
2018 wasn’t a great year for the global economy as countries like Germany and China saw sharp growth deceleration. There is heightened political and economic uncertainty in 2019.
Negative Beige Book Signals Fed Will Be Dovish
Fed finally recognizing the slowdown helped boost stocks because it means the Fed will be more dovish. The Fed is moving in the right direction as the number of rate hikes it expects is shrinking.
PPI-FD Falls The Most Since August 2016
It’s tough to get an idea of how strong growth will be in Q1 because some of the data is delayed and it’s early in the quarter. The only facet we know for sure is the government shutdown will put a major dent in growth.
CFOs And Forecasters Differ On 2019 Recession
Currently, most economists aren’t predicting a recession, but most CFOs see one coming by 2020.
Global Recession - 92.11% Chance We’re In One
This has been a terrible earnings season, but it’s very early which makes it tough to fully define. Based on my memory, when earnings season starts off a certain way, it usually continues in that direction.
Longest Government Shutdown Ever To Hurt Q1 GDP Growth
There are 800,000 federal workers not being paid. On Friday they missed their first paycheck. If the shutdown lasts a couple more months, it will cause a delay in tax refunds.
Jobless Claims Fall To 216,000: Signaling Strong Labor Market
The latest report for the week of January 5th shows claims fell to 216,000. This beats the consensus for 224,000. The 4-week moving average increased from 219,250 to 221,750 even though claims fell 17,000
Government Shutdown Causes Q1 GDP Growth Estimates To Fall
I think the stock market is overbought. Even if the government shutdown lasts another week, it probably won’t cause stock market volatility.
Millennials Face High Student Loan Debt & Expensive Housing
Demographics are changing. Fewer babies are being born, millennials are living with their parents longer, and fewer millennials are heads of households.
Q1 2019 EPS Growth Expected To Be 5.02%
December ISM PMI implies 3.2% Q4 GDP growth, and the median of 10 estimates expects 2.9% growth. There needs to be a sharp turn in the data akin to what we’re seeing in Germany and China to justify the trough stock market valuations.
Wage Growth - Strongest Production Non-Supervisory Since 2009
The December labor report was strong across the board. Specifically, construction added 38,000 jobs, retail trade added 24,000. Trade & transportation added 34,000, and professional & business added 43,000 jobs.
Market Predictions For 2019
The slowing global economy and fading effect of the fiscal stimulus seem to be in the estimates for slower 2019 growth. If growth ends up being 2.6% in 2019, that would be a huge win for stocks based on their current valuation.
Stocks Primed For A Rally
The stock market is uncertain about the possibility of a trade war and a hawkish Fed.
Bear Market - Are We In One Already?
The 10 year yield is 2.85% and the 2 year yield is 2.69%. Both are below the Fed’s current guidance for 3 more hikes in 2019 after the one on Wednesday.
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