Steven Saville | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Contributor's Links: The Speculative Investor
I graduated from the University of Western Australia in 1984 with a degree in electronic engineering and from 1984 until 1998 worked in the commercial construction industry as an engineer, a project manager and an operations manager. I began investing in the stock market 2 months prior to ...more

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An Update On The “Investment Seesaw”
Our investment seesaw concept was part of the inspiration for the Synchronous Equity and Gold Price Model (SEGPM) created by Dietmar Knoll.
The US Economic Bust Continues, But A Recession Has Been Delayed
The combination of the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (NOI) and the yield curve, our two favourite high-frequency leading indicators of US recession, has been warning of imminent recession since September-2023.
Are Gold Mining Stocks Cheap?
The HUI peaked at over 600 way back in 2011 with the gold price about $100 lower than it is today. The reason is that the average cost of mining gold is much higher now than it was in 2011
The “Transitory Inflation” Myth
The main purpose of this discussion is to debunk the persistent idea that the price inflation of 2020-2022 was mainly due to supply disruptions.
Commodity Prices And The War Cycle
For centuries, a correlation has existed between global military conflicts and secular trends in commodity prices. Upward trends in commodity prices align with the heightened frequency and intensity of military conflicts
Seven Rate Cuts Priced In For Next Year
The latest calculation of the PCE Index, an indicator of “inflation”, was reported on 22nd December morning in the US. The Fed’s inflation target has been reached. What does this mean for the financial markets?
Why Gold Stocks Underperform Gold Bullion?
Gold bullion could be viewed as insurance or a portfolio hedge or a long-term investment or a long-term store of value, but a gold mining stock is none of these.
New Recession Warnings
There was a government-spending-fuelled burst of economic activity in the US during the Q3 of this year that led to a high GDP growth number being reported for the quarter, but signs of weakness are now appearing in coincident economic indicators.
Why Junior Gold Mining Stocks Have Performed So Poorly?
Why has the junior end of the gold mining world performed so poorly over the past two years. In particular, why has it performed so poorly over the past 12 months in parallel with a relatively strong gold market?
Peak “Soft Landing”?
Thanks largely to rapid government spending, inventory building by the private sector, and about $500B coming out of the Fed’s Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility, US ‘real’ GDP grew at an annualised rate of almost 5% in Q3-2023
US Recession To Start Before Year-End
There is currently a major divergence within the US economy. We’ll review the current messages from some of our favourite leading recession indicators.
The Gold Sector Is Approaching A Cycle Low
It is worth paying close attention when a market trends into a period during which a turning point is likely based on historical cyclicality. The gold mining sector has just entered such a period.
Can The Government Create Wealth By Going Into Debt?
In accounting terms it can seem as if the government can ‘magically’ create wealth via deficit-spending, but only if you treat investment in government debt as equivalent to investment in productive endeavors and does not enable mal-investment.
Oil And Regime Uncertainty
We probably have reached “Peak Oil”. This is not the Peak Oil that became a popular story during 2004-2008 because there is no doubt that oil production could be increased with the appropriate investment.
Understanding The Yield Curve
The yield curve is said to be steepening when the gap between long-term interest and short-term interest rates is increasing.
The Status Of Gold’s “True Fundamentals” - Tuesday, Dec. 7
The gold market’s fundamentals were bullish or trending positively from early-November of 2019 through to late-September of 2020 and were bearish or trending negatively from early-October of 2020 through to late-October of this year.
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