This weekly note has now been running for 11 years since the first post was written from Thailand at the end of June 2007.  And quite a lot has happened since then:

• There was the 2008 financial crisis, one of the early forecasting successes
• This led to the publication of ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: How the Western BabyBoomers are Changing Demand Patterns, Again’, co-authored with John Richardson, which explained why the crisis had happened and described the challenges of the approaching New Normal world

Sadly, although central banks and commentators have since begun to reference the impact of demographics on the economy, they have not changed their basic belief that the right combination of tax and spending policies can always create growth.

As a result, the world has become a much more complex and confusing place.  None of us can be sure what will happen over the next 12 months, given today’s rising geo-political tensions.

In times of short-term uncertainly, it can be useful to take a longer-term view.  It is therefore perhaps helpful to look back at Chapter 4 of Boom, Gloom, which gave “Our 10 predictions for how the world would look from 2021: 

• “A major shake-out will have occurred in Western consumer markets.
• Consumers will look for value-for-money and sustainable solutions.
• Young and old will focus on ‘needs’ rather than ‘wants’.
• Housing will no longer be seen as an investment.
• Investors will focus on ‘return of capital’ rather than ‘return on capital’.
• The term ‘middle-class’ when used in emerging economies will be recognised as having no relevance to Western income levels.
• Trade patterns and markets will have become more regional.
• Western countries will have increased the retirement age beyond 65 to reduce unsustainable pension liabilities.
• Taxation will have been increased to tackle the public debt issue.
• Social unrest will have become a more regular part of the landscape.

“The transition to the New Normal will be a difficult time. The world will be less comfortable and less assured for many millions of Westerners. The wider population will find itself following the model of the ageing boomers, consuming less and saving more. Rather than expecting their assets to grow magically in value every year, they may find themselves struggling to pay-down debt left over from the credit binge.

“Companies will need to refocus their creativity and resources on real needs. This will require a renewed focus on basic research. Industry and public service, rather than finance, will need to become the destination of choice for talented people, if the challenges posed by the megatrends are to be solved. Politicians with real vision will need to explain to voters that they can no longer expect all their wants to be met via endless ‘fixes’ of increased debt.

“We could instead decide to ignore all of this potential unpleasantness.

“But doing nothing is not a solution. It will mean we miss the opportunity to create a new wave of global growth from the megatrends. And we will instead end up with even more uncomfortable outcomes.”

Most of these forecasts are now well on the way to becoming reality, and the pace of change is accelerating all the time.  It may therefore be helpful to include them in your planning processes for the 2019 – 2021 period, to test how your business (and your personal life) might be impacted if they become real.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT OVER THE PAST 11 YEARS
It is a great privilege to write the weekly note, and to be able to meet many readers at speaking events and conferences around the world.   Thank you for all your support.