Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E The Pandemic's Impact On Productivity Will Be Harsh
Economists prefer a more comprehensive measure of productivity - total factor productivity.
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E Bondholders Are Rewarded As Deflation Starts To Take Hold
Amidst the focus on the stock market and speculation, whether it will rebound, bondholders have quietly in their own world continue to enjoy significant gains.
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E Canadian Unemployment Rate Does Not Give The Full Picture Of The COVID-19 Devastation
The Canadian rate of unemployment of 13% for April came as no shock, nonetheless the number seriously belies the devastating impact of COVID-19 on the workplace.
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E No Longer Are Negative Interest Rates Considered A Rogue Policy
When central bankers say they have more tools at their disposal to ward off a worsening recession, one tool is negative interest rates. With world economies seemly in free fall we cannot rule out this possibility no matter how radical it might seem.
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E Equity Investors Are Ignoring The Federal Reserve’s Warning
Jay Powell sent an unmistakable message to investors yesterday, dashing hopes for a quick economic turnaround in the latter half of the year.
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E Will Government Spending Unleash Inflation?
There is an underlying belief, once coronavirus is contained, that North American economies can expect a burst of inflation as the exploding public deficits come home to roost.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Bond Yields And Monetary Velocity
4 days ago

The decline in long term rates is a function of deflation and the elimination of the term premium. Both are a reflection of falling velocity. Velocity is driving yields down.

Bondholders Are Rewarded As Deflation Starts To Take Hold
20 days ago

Worse yet it's all being plugged with debt. Nobody seems to want to raise equity to ward off insolvency because it will mean a watering down of share values. The system is becoming totally corrupted by the obsession with share values.

In this article: TLT
Central Bankers’ Real Challenge Is To Manage The Yield Curve
2 months ago

Thanks, Gary. The workings are much more specific as to target rates.The BoJ are clear that the 10yr be zero-- the fear is that it would go negative in the absence of their intervention. I see it as a one-way street, i.e. preventing yields from going negative. In WWII it was a case of preventing yields from going higher. Inflation is not the enemy, but deflation is. We should only be lucky to have a positively sloped curve and some inflation as an indication that growth is taking hold.

I agree with you that we need helicopter money. The Fed should credit the banks with as much money that is needed to prompt spending. Right now, it is just filling a hole as monthly debts come due --not promoting growth.

The Bank Of Canada Prepares Its Own Version Of QE To Counter An Expected Deep Recession
2 months ago

Thanks

I am not sure it's going to work because the problem is so vast and we do not really understand the full ramifications.

Coronavirus And The Empty Chocolate Factory
2 months ago

I agree that we should seriously consider helicopter money. This has always been the last resort deflationary world and it appears that we are heading in that direction.

Coronavirus And Trump's Clever Inadequacy
3 months ago

Your point about the scale in China overwhelms that of the United States is so important. The Trump administration does not appreciate just how powerful the middle class is in China and how much this virus will hurt Chinese purchases from United States for both goods and services.

The Year The Bond Market And The Bank Of Canada Parted Ways
3 months ago

Kudlow statement is a total contradiction in terms. I never had much respect for his his understanding of economics. If the economy were so strong then why is there a flight to safety? Strong economies have upper sloping yield curves.

The Canadian bond market is taking its cue from the US bond market which is also inverted. At the same time oil and other commodity prices are weak. Manufacturing has been declining for nearly six months straight. And Canada now feels a chill from China and its impact upon worldwide supply chains. The Canadian stock market hit an all-time high earlier in the week so we can't say there's any flight to quality

Simply bond investors have a completely different outlook on the future compared to stock market investors.

US Government Escalates Trade Hostility
3 months ago

Gary, I agree. The issue is that there is no American telecom that is at the forefront of the 5G technology. The US dropped the ball awhile ago and assumed that 5G was a longer way off in the future. Meanwhile, Chinese and European developers marched ahead.( I am biased. I have a Huawai phone and find it better and much cheaper than iPhones. Do I think the Chinese are spying on me??)

US Government Escalates Trade Hostility
3 months ago

Gary you are correct.Israel's tech sector is deeply involved with China,especially in AI.

As for Flat Broke the US has a long history of not acting in its best intersts. By starting a trade war which the US does not know how to end is a perfect example of not acting and your own best interest.

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STOCKS I FOLLOW

BAM Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
HCG.TSX Home Capital Group
MSFT Microsoft Corporation
RY Royal Bank of Canada
SQ Square
V Visa Inc.

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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (31 years 3 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)