Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E The Economic Recovery Is Slowing Before Our Very Eyes
Consumers continue to be reluctant to spend on personal services, while consumption of goods has been satisfied and now is tapering off.
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E The Canadian Economy Stumbles Out Of The Gate
Today's release of the Canadian GDP numbers for the second quarter demonstrated that we are clearly not in a recovery mode, despite all the predictions of the bank economists.
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E Business Loans Have Virtually Collapsed Hurting The Canadian Recovery Efforts
The Canadian banks chalked up significant profits last quarter, as the accountants decided to re-instate provisions for loan losses taken in prior quarters.
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E The Myth Of Pent-Up Demand
Canadians have been hearing a lot about the “pent-up demand” that will characterize the recovery from the 2020 deep recession.
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E Real Wages And Inflation Or Where Here The Rubber Meets The Road
The anticipated economic recovery is now facing one of its most severe tests as real wages confront the recent surge in consumer prices.
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E Real Interest Rates Continue Their Descendent Sending A Deflationary Message
The current decline in real interest rates largely reflects a major shift in investor expectations for future inflation and economic growth.
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Comments

Latest Comments
10-Year Yields And Implications
1 month ago

Arthur

If long rates were to move up 200bps the impact would be very damaging. Since the investment grade corporate bond spreads are very narrow--approx. 150 pbs, that market would be severely impacted and this would lead to a dramatic sell off in the equity markets. The equity, corporate and govt bond markets are vey intricately tied.  A 200pbs move on the 10 yr would mean that 10 yr interest costs more than double and would be very bad for housing and all sectors relying on capital investment. It would kill any nascent recovery.

The Fed will not allow this to happen. It will, as Japan does, introduce yield curve control (YCC) and bring down long rate through selective bond buying. We have had negative real yields for more than a decade and too much of the economy relies on that being maintained. I would not go short on the bonds for this reason.

We’re Not In Kansas Anymore
2 months ago

How does a market crash lead to inflation?

Liquidity Is Trapped In The Banks
2 months ago

The essence of this problem of excess liquidity or the liquidity trap is slow economic growth. And that is why monetary stimulus is not able to do anything when real rates of interest are negative as they are today. The only solution to stimulate growth is expansionary fiscal policy which we now have an abundance because of the pandemic.

Canada's Employment Continues To Sputter As It Struggles With Re-Opening
3 months ago

Very valid point about correlation

Even if We get out of the third wave the output gap will be huge,I do not understand why anyone thinks the BoC will raise its rate next year.

Canadian Banks Are Not In A Lending Mood
4 months ago

I agree that the Fed should keep its mouth shut. Transparency gives the market a chance to game the the Fed's next move. It used to be that way before the 1990s

But then Greenspan started the whole idea of transparency and it's continues to this day.

The Bank Of Canada’s Uncertainty Principle
5 months ago

I think we're all flying at night with instrument panels.

The Fed And Bond Market Similar Inflation Views
5 months ago

Arthur

Do we know what amount of inflation above 2% will the Fed tolerate and for how long? Kinda of vague on their part.

Canadian Federal Government Looks To The Long-Term Bond Market To Finance Deficits
5 months ago

A gamble for whom? The issuer has to payments obligations of 2 % interest paymemts for 30 years...no gamble there. The bond purchaser say a insurer sells an insurance policy that is based on the guarantee 2% annual payment...no gamble for the insurance company.The recent increase in long rates is welcomed by institutional funds who now use their cash flow to improve their returns

The gamble you are talking about is borrowings at short rates and that is what the govts want to get away from by buying more duration

Inflation Or Disinflation?
5 months ago

What replaces the 60/40 split?

Do Not Look To Wage Gains To Contribute To Inflation
5 months ago

The issue is even deeper. Labour's share of national income has been on steep decline for about two decades. Labour costs are held in check by cheap imports and declining domestic production in conjunction. This is ongoing --- just look what happened to Amazon workers in the recent vote to unionize.

The loss of jobs during the height of the pandemic were mostly in lower wage industries ( food +beverage) tourism, So many of these workers have no skills that are needed in the labour short industries.

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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (32 years 6 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)