Executive Officer at SME
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Moon Kil Woong is currently a VP at a SME. Previously he was a tech stock consultant, VP of Research at ING, and sell side Director at Crédit Agricole Indosuez. Moon Kil Woong has a Masters in Public Administration from SJSU.

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E My Take On Recessionary Indicators
Despite the regularity of economic downturns and the existence of business cycles in a free market economy it is quite obvious that recession calling remains an art more than a science with the scientists being wrong consistently.
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Is America About To Face A Bankruptcy Epidemic?
10 days ago

Gold and silver will also fall in this scenario as the race to get dollars to cover expenses burns through the value of everything and the mighty Greenback takes prominence once again. The simple reason why gold and silver have as much demand as they do is because central banks buy up the excess to appear to bolster their reserves even though it means little compared to their debts. If they should ever have to dispose of this and/or can't afford to buy more the excess will become apparent very quickly.

The Biggest Drops In The History Of The Dow Jones Industrial Average
10 days ago

It certainly isn't representative of most businesses. The market environment and government have helped these firms grow and prosper and they have been able to do this by cannibalizing other businesses, especially mid and small businesses. This has increased efficiencies and have cut costs. The stock market has prospered, however, the economy as a whole is still struggling.

Inflation And Capacity Utilization
10 days ago

Fortunately or sadly capacity isn't the issue these days as much as too little demand for global capacity. This Corona downturn will crimp demand even more ending is persistently high unemployment and a lack of income. It is the bond holders who should be worried about when their bonds renew they will continue to generate even less revenue. That is why there is still a lot of demand for stocks which are becoming the only hope of generating a decent return on your assets.

Thus few are worried about supply. However, the author is right in that if this persists too long productive capacity may be permanently lost globally leading to even worse unemployment and lack of demand later down the line. In such a case, property collapses will likely start another crisis.

How Central Banks And Lockdowns Are Making The Crisis Worse
15 days ago

There are other stocks too like Intuitive Surgical as well, but you are correct it would dash the whole market if FANGS fall too badly. Unfortunately, not all FANGS are like Google with Netflix rising strongly but which runs massively cash flow negative. Anyways, growth and sustainable cash flow after Corona is the important key to focus on.

These 5 Dividend Stocks Popular With Millenials All Slashed Dividends… And Won’t Pay Any For Years
15 days ago

This is the case for those seeking dividend yield without care about the debt on the balance sheet and long term viability of cash flow. Sadly, many elderly have been advised by bad brokers to pile into dividend yielding stocks and mutual funds to make personal profit at the expense of their clients.

In this article: DAL, LUV, AAL, CCL, RCL
Foreigners Dumped Record Amount Of US Treasuries Amid March Liquidity Crisis
16 days ago

True. The big issue is we will have to watch foreign holdings of our government debt. If it drops precipitously then it's time to worry.

How Central Banks And Lockdowns Are Making The Crisis Worse
16 days ago

There are a few we know will return to profitability. Google is the most obvious example.

Foreigners Dumped Record Amount Of US Treasuries Amid March Liquidity Crisis
17 days ago

This is not a good sign, however, can anyone be surprised given no attempt at balancing things, asking the Federal Reserve to increase their holdings, and Trump going on a new trade etc. war with China. It is true the market is where it is because there is not much else to put your money these days, however, if the US has trouble with government bond issues later that will affect everything. The US can't afford to finance its own debt levels alone.

USD/JPY Forecast May 18-22 - Japan Likely In Recession; Will Yen Slide?
17 days ago

the world is in recession whether anyone wants to admit it or not is another matter. One should rotate into companies set to dominate after Covid. Unfortunately most small companies and players will be obliterated and with it a lot of the middle class. Unemployment in to 10% range will likely continue and things will be bad unless countries justify a way for them to cover healthcare and afford daily living.

In this article: FXY
How Central Banks And Lockdowns Are Making The Crisis Worse
17 days ago

Indeed the bailout of companies always mis-allocates assets. There is no reason to support businesses which real demand will not meet supply after the return to normal. Doing so only prolongs the agony for strong businesses and the industry. The airline business should have consolidated to companies that can live without bailouts decades ago but still survives as is leading to low profitability, bad service, and poor management. Even worse they run business poorly because they are rewarded by the government bailouts for being highly debt ridden, having poor business structures including excessive executive pay because they want to show they need bailout money every time there is a downturn, and they leverage buyout competitors because no big airline wants another potential competitor who can qualify and potentially steal a portion of bailout money in a downturn. This is similar in the banking sector.

Even worse is industries that should almost completely be wiped out like the cruise ship industry which is getting bailout money. Rather than making American business stronger, this behavior is making it weaker. That said, small businesses that are well run are not getting the bailout funds they need.

It is much better for companies to survive off of consumer needs and demands and if anything, bailouts should go to support consumers through these tough times via monthly checks, government support with healthcare, etc. This way at least the market is still determining allocation of resources through real consumption even if the consumers wealth is modified temporarily.

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