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Mish Shedlock

Investment Advisor Representative - Sitka Pacific Capital Management
Contributor's Links: Mish Talk Sitka Pacific's Investment Management
Mike Mish Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit Sitka Pacifics Investment Management Page to learn more ...more
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How Much Do Food Stamps, Social Security, And Medicare Support The Economy?
Friday, March 29, 2024 5:41 PM EDT
Inquiring minds might be interested in a discussion of government transfer payments as a percentage of real income.
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Spending, Income, And Inflation Data Do Not Support Fed Interest Rate Cutsz
Friday, March 29, 2024 12:39 PM EDT
The BEA reports real income is down, but personal spending jumped anyway. Inflation data is mostly as expected, but much higher than the Fed would like to see.
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Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Hits New Record High
Friday, March 29, 2024 9:01 AM EDT
Case-Shiller updated its home price data for January this week. A look at the key charts and a discussion of why it’s hard to tell if prices are rising or falling.
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Apartment List Reports Rent Prices Increase For The Second Month
Thursday, March 28, 2024 4:51 PM EDT
Apartment List says the national price of rent is up for the second month after declining for six straight months. The measures are useful but only if you understand how best to use the report.
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Real GDP For The Fourth Quarter Revised Up, GDI Jumps
Thursday, March 28, 2024 1:30 PM EDT
The BEA revised fourth-quarter GDP from +3.2 Percent to +3.4 percent. Real GDI was a whopping +4.8 percent but discrepancies remain and charts tell a better story.
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Expect A Financial Crisis In Europe With France At The Epicenter
Wednesday, March 27, 2024 5:47 PM EDT
The EU never enforced its Growth and Stability Pact or Maastricht Treaty rules. The crisis is coming to a head with France and Italy in the spotlight. The first casualty will be Green policy.
In this article: EZU
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The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction: Mission Accomplished?
Tuesday, March 26, 2024 12:20 AM EDT
In the past year, debt held by the public has gone up by $2.8 trillion. Year-over-year debt always goes up more than the deficit because the CBO does not count Social Security deficits until they are realized.
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Consumer Stress Is Evident In The Declining Price Of New Homes
Monday, March 25, 2024 6:01 PM EDT
To entice buyers, home builders are building cheaper and cheaper houses. What are you getting for your money?
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New Home Sales Little Changed In February
Monday, March 25, 2024 12:54 PM EDT
New home sales were down 0.3% in Feb from an upward revision. Ignoring the revision, sales rose 0.2%. Signs of builder overoptimism are building.
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In The Next 5 Years Employment In Age Groups 60+ Will Drop By ~12.5 Million
Friday, March 22, 2024 2:05 AM EDT
Due to age demographics, I expect employment in age groups 60 and over to decline by about 12.5 million. Let’s go over the math to see how I arrived at that number.
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Existing Home Sales Surge 9.5 Percent, Median Sales Price Up 8th Month
Thursday, March 21, 2024 12:52 PM EDT
Buyers came back into the existing-home market in February. But median price rose for the 8th consecutive month, making things very difficult for new buyers. The share of first-time buyers fell again.
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Fed’s Dot Plot Is More Hawkish Towards Cuts In March Vs. December
Wednesday, March 20, 2024 4:52 PM EDT
The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) Dot Plot dialed back rate cut expectations in March 2024 compared to December of 2023.
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The Fed Stand Pat, Is “Highly Attentive To Inflation Risk”
Wednesday, March 20, 2024 2:30 PM EDT
As universally expected, the Fed held its base interest rate at 5.25% to 5.50%. The Fed still expects cuts this year, yet issued a big caution about inflation.
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US Drop To Number 23 In The World Happiness Report
Wednesday, March 20, 2024 1:16 PM EDT
For the first time in the history of the report, the US dropped out of the top twenty happiest nations. The youth poll (30 and under) is a disaster for the US, Germany, Canada, France, Japan, and China.
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How Much Did The BLS Overstate Job Expansion In 2023?
Wednesday, March 20, 2024 9:50 AM EDT
Based on QCEW data, the BLS may have overstated 2023 end of year jobs by 800,000.
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Austin Is Reeling, But What Does That Mean For Housing And Rent Nationally?
Monday, March 18, 2024 4:11 PM EDT
Once hot Austin is in reverse. Home prices have fallen more in Austin than anywhere in the U.S. Even rents are weak. Don’t make too much of it nationally. Commercial Real Estate is the big national problem.
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