Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Industrial And Manufacturing Production Decline: Whence The Business Cycle?
This data follows the retail sales data released yesterday which drove down nowcasts of GDP.
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The Mystery Of The Miniscule
The Federal budget has just had a big hole blown in it, thanks to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the last omnibus spending bill, the both the Fed and foreigners (including central banks) are no longer adding to their holdings of Treasurys.
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This Is Winning?
Trump’s stated objective is to shrink the US-China imbalance (regardless of how misguided that objective). He is failing.
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The Modified Yield Curve And Growth Prospects Through 2019
It’s kind of limiting to look only at recessions as predicted by the yield curve. What about growth?
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Lest You Be Lulled By The NFP Release: Employment Growth 1 Yr Before Recessions
Forward looking indicators continue to suggest a slowdown.
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US Recession Probability – Term Spread+EPU Model
Laurent Ferrara asks what’s the probability of a US recession in 12 months if one augments an utterly standard 10yr-3mo term structure model with US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) as measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

FXE Euro Currency Trust
UDN PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
XHB SPDR S&P HMBLDRS IDX FND
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR

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Latest Posts
45 Years Of Nominal Soybean Prices
Chart covering 45 years of nominal soybean prices.

Work Experience

Education

University of California, Berkeley
PhD
Economics

Publications