Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Treasury Ten Year Yield Forecasts
Little changed from July, at least from the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists.
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Recession Before The Leaves Fall?
The Michigan sentiment indicator certainly covaries and precedes recession dates, although the probit model does not do a particularly good job at detecting big changes in probability.
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GDP Forecasts
The October Wall Street Journal survey of economists, now quarterly, is out. A substantial downshift in the forecasted level of GDP is apparent.
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Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-October
Industrial production was hit partly by the after-effects of Hurricane Ida, and also (in manufacturing) by the reductions in auto production.
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A Graphical Primer To Interpreting The Sources Of Inflation In The COVID Era
How does one interpret excessive monetary or fiscal stimulus leading to overheating and inflation – what used to be called “demand pull” inflation?
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Lumber Futures As Predictors
While it is tempting to conclude that futures are good predictors of future spot rates, the data may say otherwise. Let's take a look.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

FXE Euro Currency Trust
UDN PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
XHB SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
For These Trying Times
If you despair of the administration bringing us safely through this test, then let this provide some hope.
Victory At Sea: Soybeans Heading To China (from Brazil)
Nearest month futures are about a dollar lower (at $9.34/bushel) than the nearest month futures on the day when Trump announced Section 301 action against China.
“Differences In And Consistency Of Excess Mortality Estimates In Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria”
Excess deaths in PR through year end, those recorded by the Statistics Office, numbered only 654. Most of these occurred in the last ten days of September and the whole of October.
37 Years Ago Today: “It’s Because Of You Little Motherf**kers That We’re Out Of Work!”
On this day, in 1982,at the height of the hysteria focused on competition from Japan, two unemployed auto workers chased down Vincent Chin — celebrating his bachelor’s party — and beat him to death.
45 Years Of Nominal Soybean Prices
Chart covering 45 years of nominal soybean prices.

Work Experience

Education

University of California, Berkeley
PhD
Economics

Publications