Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic issues.

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ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Dispersion In Q1 Nowcasts
There’s quite a dispersion in nowcasts/tracking estimates for Q1 growth, ranging between 0.8% SAAR (GS) and 3.1% (IHS Markit), with GDPNow at 2.1%.
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Remembering (Or Not) The Recession Of 2022H1
We now have the following picture of the private nonfarm labor sector, which seems to run counter to the argument last made a month ago that a recession occurred in 2022H1.
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Revisiting Exchange Market Pressure
Some countries might recognize that intervention in the foreign exchange market may not be as effective during periods of extreme stress when currency pressures are large and might entail losing large quantities of official foreign currency reserves.
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The Employment Release And Business Cycle Indicators - Friday, Feb. 3
While one has to be careful with the household survey employment series, it’s hard to say that the economy has taken a decided downturn in December/January.
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The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance And Federal Debt Held By The Public: Time Series
Since 2021Q1, debt-to-potential-GDP has been pretty stable.
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Recession Probabilities Incorporating Foreign Term Spreads
Foreign term spreads in several major financial centers have inverted.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

FXE Euro Currency Trust
UDN PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
XHB SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
For These Trying Times
If you despair of the administration bringing us safely through this test, then let this provide some hope.
Victory At Sea: Soybeans Heading To China (from Brazil)
Nearest month futures are about a dollar lower (at $9.34/bushel) than the nearest month futures on the day when Trump announced Section 301 action against China.
“Differences In And Consistency Of Excess Mortality Estimates In Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria”
Excess deaths in PR through year end, those recorded by the Statistics Office, numbered only 654. Most of these occurred in the last ten days of September and the whole of October.
37 Years Ago Today: “It’s Because Of You Little Motherf**kers That We’re Out Of Work!”
On this day, in 1982,at the height of the hysteria focused on competition from Japan, two unemployed auto workers chased down Vincent Chin — celebrating his bachelor’s party — and beat him to death.
45 Years Of Nominal Soybean Prices
Chart covering 45 years of nominal soybean prices.

Work Experience

Education

University of California, Berkeley
PhD
Economics

Publications