Matt Weller Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Experienced Portfolio Manager | CFA and CMT Charterholder
Contributor's Links: Faraday Research

Matthew is a portfolio manager (US Equities and FX) at Faraday Research where he is responsible for the production and management of US Real Time Trader (large-cap US Equities) and US FX Daily (G10 currency pairs) products. Subscribers include some of the world's leading brokerages and ... more

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FOMC Preview: Powell Likely To Stay On Hold, Open The Door To A July Cut
With the market discounting a (slight) chance of a rate cut tomorrow, we could see a minor bounce in the buck and dip in US stocks if the Fed stands pat.
Dollar Shrugs Off Soft CPI – Could We See The Buck Bounce?
When it comes to Federal Reserve policy, the big sticking point has been inflation, which has remained stubbornly subdued despite low unemployment and decent economic growth.
Four Signs That EUR/USD Put In A Major Bottom Last Month
The US dollar is in rally mode at the start of the US session, boosted by this weekend’s news that President Trump was “indefinitely suspending” tariffs on Mexico after an immigration deal was reached late Friday.
NFP Preview: Fed Watching Wages As It Weighs A Potential Rate Cut In June Or July
While traders love to watch the month-to-month fluctuations in the aggregate number of jobs created, most of those fluctuations are mere noise.
The Yield Spread Albatross Around USD/JPY's Neck
Short-term yield spreads are one of the strongest drivers of currency values.
Dollar Index Vulnerable As Fed Rate Cut Odds Explode Higher
The recent price action in the US dollar has been interesting, to say the least.
Bitcoin Stabilizes On Trump Tariffs, But Downside Risks Remain Below $8K
Despite today’s tentative recovery, there are some technical signs that Bitcoin has formed a near-term top.
GBP/USD Bears Unimpressed By May’s Latest Brexit Offer
Technically speaking, GBP/USD is trying to break an inauspicious streak: the pair has traded lower from open to close in each of the last six days, and ten of the last eleven, shedding more than 400 pips in a little over two weeks alone.
Three Fundamental Theories For Bitcoin’s Big Bullish Run
The world’s oldest cryptoasset has gained more than 150% since early February in a stunning technical move.
WTI Tests A Two-Week High Above 63.00 As Trump “Hopes” US Can Avoid War With Iran
Oil prices have generally tracked risk appetite so far this week, dropping sharply on Monday before recovering over the last three days. Today’s rally has been supercharged by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
Dollar Index Uptrend Intact, Bulls Watching For A Break Above 97.70
The US Dollar Index was able to shrug off the weaker-than-expected April Retail Sales report, but it finally succumbed to selling pressure on news that President Trump would delay tariffs on EU automobiles.
EUR/USD Coiled For A Breakout, Near-Term Bias Bearish Below 1.1260
From a longer-term perspective, EUR/USD remains in a well-defined downtrend since peaking back in September.
USD/JPY Hits 3-Month Lows Near 109.00 On Trade War Risk Aversion
Looking at USD/JPY, rates have now broken definitively below the late March low near 109.75 after forming an “inside candle” on Friday, shifting the near-term trend to bearish.
China’s Trade Retaliation Has USD/CNH Bulls Eyeing Decade-Plus Highs Near 7.00
For now, USD/CNH looks like it may have a date with 7.00, and as long as trade rhetoric remains incendiary, traders will want to strap in more volatility out of USD/CNH and global markets broadly.
Three Trade Deal Scenarios And What They Mean For The S&P 500
Major US stock indices are trading lower by about 1% midday after the US more than doubled its tariffs on $250B in Chinese goods overnight (though European and some Asian indices are shrugging off the news so far).
Bitcoin Bursts Back Above 6,000
The world’s oldest crypto asset has rallied nearly 100% from its mid-December lows to regain the 6k handle for the first time since November.
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