Martin Hutchinson | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Columnist at The Bear's Lair
Martin O. Hutchinson is an investment banker with more than 25 years’ experience, Hutchinson has worked on both Wall Street and Fleet Street and is a leading expert on the international financial markets. At Creditanstalt-Bankverein, Hutchinson was a Senior Vice President in charge of the ...more

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There Are No Independent Central Banks
It has long been a nostrum among economists that central banks should be independent of their countries’ governments.
The Yawning Global Fiscal Pit
President Biden recently produced his Budget for the next fiscal year, with projections for the next ten years; it proposes a series of trillion-dollar deficits, beginning with $1.78 trillion in the year to September 2025.
The Road Not Taken For British Finance
Jacob, Lord Rothschild, who died this week at 87, was mourned mostly as a philanthropist, his 1980s venture with Charterhouse J. Rothschild lost in the mists of time.
Biden’s People Have Lost The Denominator
​​​​​​​In the recent Congressional Budget Office projections of the budget deficit to 2033 there is one morsel of good news.
The Need For Intelligent Investors
The industries in which we invest and the techniques used to analyze investments have changed, but the fundamentals of efficient capital allocation remain the same.
All I Want For Christmas Is A Bear Market
A true bear market for Christmas will not bring much of a Happy New Year in 2024. But the outlook for 2025 and beyond would be truly glorious.
Most Mergers Should Be Stopped, Not Waved Through
Countless studies have shown that most mergers destroy value rather than enhancing it, reliably enriching only the top managements of the companies concerned. Should the default position not be to ban mergers?
Riding The Tides Of Interest Rates
Much has been written about the end of the bond bull market of 1981-2021 and the return to higher interest rates in the future.
The G In ESG Is As Bad As The E And The S
The ESG movement, whereby companies follow centrally approved directives in the areas of environmental activity, social activity and governance, has seen some setbacks recently.
The Decade Of Debt Restructuring
Today we are likely due for a recession of uncertain length and depth (though unlikely to match the U.S. 1930s) and inflation that seems likely to match the 1970s.
World Central Banks Are Wimping Out
The Fed’s decision this week to hold the Federal Funds short-term interest rate at the 5.25%-5.50% range mirrored recent actions in other central banks worldwide. That is a pity because inflation is by no means conquered, yet.
The Bear’s Lair: Suffolk Bank Beats Bankman-Fried
Two groups of people from elite backgrounds, Boston merchants of the early 19th century and Stanford professorate alumni of the early 21st century, founded institutions that made important changes to the U.S. financial system.
Investment Crowds Are Mad, Not Wise
The other reason why investment managers do not outperform the market is their intellectual herd instinct.
Stock Prices Are Three Times Their Proper Level
The market is today at three times the fair level. Eventually, it will crack, and prices will head towards their fair level.
The Bear’s Lair: The Correct Inflation Target Is Zero
Inflation depended on the world gold supply, which for constant prices needed to increase approximately as fast as world GDP, taking into account both population increases and output increases.
Why Britain Lost Its Industrial Dominance
In 1830, Britain was completely economically dominant, the only significant industrial power. Since that time, it has steadily lost its industrial dominance. Unless it is reversed, further accelerating decline is ahead.
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