Marc Chandler Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Political Economist

Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks.

Chandler attended North Central College for undergraduate work, where he majored in political science and the ... more

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Are We On The Cusp Of New Leg Up In Risk Assets?
The dollar fell against all the major currencies last week, save the Japanese yen. All five of the best performers (NOK 2.1%, NZD 1.6%, AUD 1.0%, GBP 1.0%, and CAD 0.9%) appeared to take out downtrend lines that were in place since around June 10.
Macro Considerations In The Week Ahead
Risk-appetites and, by implication, the capital markets entered a new phase around June 5, when the US reported an unexpectedly strong jump in the May non-farm payrolls. The risk assets have been rallying in anticipation of an economic recovery.
Dollar Thumped Ahead Of US Jobs Report
Market optimism over the possibility of a vaccine in early 2021 overshadowed the continued surge in US cases, where the 50k-a-day threshold of new cases has been breached.
EC July 2020 Monthly
Many major and emerging central banks took action in June but outside of possible technical adjustments will continue with the current supportive stance in July.
Second Verse Can't Be Worse Than The First, Can It?
The resurgence of the contagion in the US has stopped or reversed an estimated 40% of the re-openings, but the appetite for risk has begun the second half on a firm note, helped by manufacturing PMIs.
When Primary Is Secondary
The gains in US equities yesterday carried into Asia Pacific trading today, but the European investors did not get the memo.
USD Is Offered In Quiet Start To The New Week
The combination of rising virus cases and the sell-off in the US before the weekend dragged nearly all the Asia Pacific bourses lower. The Nikkei led the way with more than a 2% drop, but most bourses were off more than 1%.
Caution As Last Part Of Corrective Phase Could Be The Most Impulsive
We anticipated and have been tracking the corrective or consolidative phase in the foreign exchange market since shortly after the unexpected surge in US non-farm payrolls reported on June 5. That phase may not be over yet.
Liquidity And Macro Compete For Upper Hand
Two things are shaping the macro economy. First, of course, is the virus and the second is the strength of the Q3 recovery.
Investors Wrestle With Notion That More Covid Cases Mean More Stimulus
It may be that a new surge in virus cases will elicit more policy support from officials, but the immediate focus may be on the economic disruption.
Contagion Growth And Calendar-Effect Saps Investor Enthusiasm
Given the huge run-up in risk assets this quarter, and the technical indicators warning of corrective forces, concerns over the new infections is pushing on an open door.
Risk Appetites Satiated For The Moment
The rally in risk assets in North America yesterday is failing to carry over into today's activity.
Weebles Wobble But They Don't Fall Down
After early indecision, investors ramped the demand for risk assets, encouraged perhaps by indications that the Trump Administration is going to support at least another trillion-stimulus package.
Dollar Begins Week On Back Foot
Investors begin the new week, perhaps slowed a bit by the weekend developments and the growth of new infections.
Corrective Forces Still Dominate
After a run-up in risk assets from the middle of May, broad consolidation was the main feature of the capital markets last week.
Separating The Wheat And Chaff
The recent price action, and in particular, the sideways trend in many segments of the capital markets, reflects the challenge investors are having in separating the wheat from the chaff. The strong co-movement of risk assets has weakened.
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