Kevin Muir | TalkMarkets | Page 2
Private Investor
Contributor's Links: The Macro Tourist Where Is Beeks?
I am a private investor who used to work for a big Canadian bank as a derivative index trader. I have been writing a journal for myself for many years. From time to time I have shared these posts with colleagues and friends on my site, The Macro Tourist. ...more

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Explaining OpEx Drift
For those who aren't aware, OpEx stands for Option Expiry. Over the past few years, there has been a pronounced tendency for markets to rise in the week in front of a big expiry.
A Magazine Picture Essay
Could the rally continue? For sure. We have crossed firmly into the speculative mode. Is this a great "investment opportunity?" Not a chance...
Let's Be Careful Out There
The market seems to be almost completely ignoring a serious development in the Chinese swine flu crisis occurring in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.
And Another One Joins The Club...
Earlier this week, South Korea President Moon Jae-In announced a pre-election fiscal spending boost.
Why Have We Been Screaming Higher?
The stock market has been on a tear recently. There are lots of reasons being tossed around, but let me give you my interpretation of what's happening.
Stop Me If You've Heard This One Before
I want to take you back to January 2018. The S&P 500 had been screaming for four months. The index had tacked on almost 14% in that span. Everyone was bullish.
Election Cycle Still Intact
Trump's mid-term election stock market return has been one of the best on record. But what does all this portend for next year? What does the fourth year of the Presidential cycle look like?
Greedy Or Fearful?
A good trader knows to never say never.
Don't Fight The Fiscal
Negative rates are an abomination that demonstrate the sheer idiocy of current policy. History will not be kind to countries that have adopted NIRP.
IVOL: My Dream ETF
IVOL is designed for inflation hawks who forecast increased fixed-income volatility and a much steeper curve.
Worries Add Up
The time to be heavily long is past. The next 5-10% in the stock market is more likely to be down than higher. Time to lighten up and look for spots to take stabs on the short side.
Inflation Breakevens: A Core Holding
Although many investors understand that TIPS are designed to offer an investor a way to insulate their bond against inflation, less recognize these securities offer a way to bet on inflation.
Don't Give Away Your Crude Gamma
We are still miles away from a true bull market in crude. Could that happen? For sure. But the fate of the energy market still lays in front of us. The bulls should temper their enthusiasm.
Vancouver, Casinos And Grandmothers
Canadian rates are already lower than in the United States. But the trend between the two countries is drifting nicely in the “right” direction. Again, no need to overthink it.
Did Powell Used To Be A Lot Smarter?
Although I have long poked fun (good naturedly of course!) at the forecasts for another 2008 Great Financial Crisis, I wanted to highlight an interesting development that has me scratching my head wondering if I am being too cavalier.
Skew Offers Great Opportunity
Getting long cheap gamma in out-of-the-money eurodollar puts is probably the best way to express the view that the American economy is not quite as late-cycle as the market suspects.
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