Larry White Blog | 2018 Mid Year Review | Talkmarkets
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Over 35 years experience working in oil and gas accounting with privately held oil and gas producing companies. Also have a blog that covers monetary system issues and the potential for major future monetary system change. (  - email: ... more

2018 Mid Year Review

Date: Tuesday, June 19, 2018 1:18 PM EST

Mid year of 2018 means this blog has now been online for about 4 1/2 years now. The blog started out attempting to watch for any signs that the monetary system we have had for some time now based on the US dollar as global reserve currency might be headed for major change or even a full monetary system reset. 


Literally thousands of hours of time have been spent here reading relevant news articles from both mainstream and alternative media sources. Official publications from both organizations like the IMF, BIS and major central banks have been reviewed and monitored for signs of potential major change. In addition, extensive effort was made to document a list of systemic risk warnings that have been issued during these past few years by various credible sources (see that list here). 

On top of all that, efforts were made to reach out to highly qualified global experts with expertise on global payments systems and monetary systems. These efforts led to another page documenting a variety of serious proposals for possible significant monetary change for the future (see that list here).


I have been extremely blessed to get direct input from a wide variety of experts coming from a wide range of views on these issues. A group of expert economists who routinely discuss ideas for potential monetary system change sometimes copy me on email discussions which provides me with great insight into how these issues are discussed and debated. 


With all that background, I have concluded that at this time significant monetary system change is unlikely to happen soon unless some kind of new very big global financial crisis arises to disrupt the present system to the extent it cannot continue to function. Many systemic risks that could lead to such a disruption have been identified and discussed here in great detail. Some of these risks have subsided while others remain. The list of risks changes from time to time with new events popping up while others drop off the list. 


Below I will use a Q&A style format to provide a 2018 mid year update and explain why I have decided to further reduce blog articles and move into monitoring mode sometime this fall. Basically, it is because I cannot identify any systemic risk at this time likely to so disrupt the present system as to force significant changes to it.



Q: What systemic risks exist right now that could lead to disruption of current monetary system and force major systemic changes?


A: Events related to the ongoing "slow motion civil war" in US politics and some of the global geopolitical events (North Korea, Middle East, etc) are the ones I can identify at this time. Some also suggest that a major trade war could become a systemic risk. However, none of those appear to be an imminent threat to the stability of the monetary system as of the date of this update.  


Q: What about Russia and China and their obvious ongoing efforts to undermine the US dollar as the global reserve currency?


A: That process is ongoing, but moves very slowly. At the pace that these changes take place it could take several more years or even a decade before the US dollar is seriously threatened as the global reserve currency. As we have stated many times, a new major global crisis could alter the timetable, but at this time there is no indication of that on the near term horizon. One expert I hear from by email sent me a link to this article on the dollar which pretty well sums of what I see quite a bit lately. Lots of people have incentive to bypass the US dollar, but no viable alternative seems ready to do that right now.

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