Kieran O'dea Blog | Logic in the Time of Corona | TalkMarkets
CIO, Hedge Knight Capital
Contributor's Links: Klendathu Capitalist
My formal education is in math, physics and engineering. I take pride in the fact that my last economic course was in high school. My background may be analytical quantitative work but I prefer abstract thought using adaptive models that exist in the confines of my cranium. A contrarian by ...more

Logic in the Time of Corona

Date: Sunday, March 29, 2020 10:15 PM EDT

“I know why you did it. I know you were afraid. Who wouldn’t be? War, terror, disease. They were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense. Fear got the best of you, and in your panic, you turned to the now high chancellor, Adam Sutler. He promised you order, he promised you peace, and all he demanded in return was your silent, obedient consent.” ~ V for Vendetta by Alan Moore

People are dying. Hospitals in the hardest hit areas are reporting an overflow of patients. Everyone knows someone who has been affected by the virus.

No one is questioning that people aren’t dying. That hospitals in certain parts of the country aren’t being overwhelmed by a temporary increase in sick patients. That doctors aren’t putting their lives on the line by working themselves to the bone to deal with the increase in pressure. No one is denying any of this… Well almost no one…

Elon Musk being a horrible human aside, my argument is simple, we’re in a terrible situation, but it’s not as bad as the market believes. And yes, I’m using the word “believe” for a reason. Rational thought and logic are being tossed aside in favor of emotion and anecdotes. We can all see that young person on twitter who has shared their horrifying story of being sick with the virus. Or the unfortunate doctor who died after having been worked to the bone while being infected by a number of different strains of the virus. These are sad stories. If you want to dwell on them, and scream that the system should be burnt to the ground, that’s fine. You have that right, but I doubt you’ll be successful at generating good returns in the market going forward.

The truth is that when we drill down into the data we find that the virus is not as bad as people believe. While many believe the virus has a mortality rate far exceeding 1% the data suggests otherwise.

The cruise ship known as the Diamond Princess data set is also worth noting:

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

The countries that do the most rigorous testing find that less than 1% of infected actually die. Iceland has done a great job testing everyone whether symptomatic or not, only to find that young people are far more likely to carry the virus. The mortality rate in Iceland is currently below 0.3%.

Continue reading on my blog.

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