CES 2020: EVs Could Dominate New Car Sales By 2030

Kirk Spano

Change Analyst & Investment Advisor

I grew up in a middle class working family in Milwaukee.I remember long gas lines, the first home my parents bought and the recession of the early1980s. My parents sacrificed to put me through Catholic Schools at a time that Milwaukee Public Schools were beginning to fail. I also remember all of the good times with my family, especially my brothers, and friends. I can never fully repay any of these people for their love and concern for me, nor their guidance. The Only Thing That Is Certain, Is Change I see how times have changed in America the past35years. Life has become harder as the global economy has shifted and become more competitive. I also know that some of the opportunity in America has been hoarded by few. What I believe is that America is still the land of opportunity, but that we must be wise about how we approach the world individually. Over the next decade, the world will benefit from the massive changes in technology across every industry. Key will be what I have termed the smart everything world which will encompass services, health care, industry, energy, transportation and communications. The world will also have to deal with the aging demographics, massive accumulated debts, a rise in fascist tendencies and climate change (regardless of whats causing it). As investors, we will see increased risk and opportunity. More About Me After graduating from Dominican High School,I attended the University of Wisconsin in Milwaukee with majors in Economics and Political Science. I began my investment career as a financial advisor in1996with one of Americas largest independent broker-dealers. I spent14years as a broker restrained by a financial industry that I feel is mediocre at best and generally overpriced. In2010, I foundedBluemound Asset Management,LLC,a fee-only Registered Investment Advisor in Wisconsin that acts as a fiduciary in your best interest. I focus on investment management and retirement planning for individuals, as well as, small business. My methodology is adapted from the book The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham Warren Buffetts mentor. In 2011, I was selected over nearly 200 analysts as "The World's Next Great Investing Columnist" by MarketWatch of the Wall Street Journal. I am now published regularly on MarketWatch, TalkMarkets, Seeking Alpha and syndicated around the media. You can find my ranking versus thousands of other analysts according to TipRanks. My simple goal is offer smart, low cost, risk managed investment and financial advice that helps you protect and grow your financial freedom.less

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CES 2020: EVs Could Dominate New Car Sales By 2030

Date: Monday, January 13, 2020 12:17 PM EDT

Summary

EVs will likely make up 50-80% of new car sales by 2030.
Even with potentially watered down fuel efficiency standards by the Trump administration, European and Chinese mandates guarantee mass EV penetration.
Level 5 autonomous driving won't happen in the 2020s.
Tesla (TSLA) could become one of the biggest car companies, but Ford looks likely to drive mass EV adoption in the U.S.
GM (GM) is in a precarious position as it lags most of the industry for both luxury EVs and mass market EVs.

The 2020 Consumer Electronics Show [CES] is over and I have been doing some reading, reviewing and reflecting as I await a flight home after being delayed by ice and snow.

The major takeaway from CES 2020 is we are about to see a massive technological and economic shift in the 2020s as the merger of 5G, IoT and AI impacts almost everything.

The implications for investors from the coming technology wave are massive. We are going to witness the best positioned companies break away from the pack, while others, literally, go to zero.

Over the next two weeks, I will cover the most important investor takeaways from CES 2020. The thoughts I present are derived from what I have heard, seen and read during CES 2020 and subsequent follow-up. Here is a link to the first in the series: CES 2020: Investing In Artificial Intelligence

Today, we dive into what the future of the automotive industry looks like from an investment standpoint. Deeper dives into individual investment ideas will be required.

The EVs ARE Coming!

There has been ongoing debate among investors about the future of electric vehicles. As always, I try to take a step back from the noise, especially when it gets ideological (you should too), and fall back on our 4-step investment process.

The first stop in our investment research process at Margin of Safety Investing is to evaluate the big secular trends. By knowing which way the long-term trends are moving, we can break down the impacts on investment ideas at the industry and corporate level.

Among the biggest global trends is the move to limit greenhouse gas emissions. From the ground up, most people believe that fighting climate change is a major issue. Behaviors have already been modified at the consumer level to reflect that belief structure. Look no further than the Millennials.

Corporations are moving to reduce their carbon footprints, even without major prompting from governments. It is easy to do a search and find hundreds of "carbon neutral" pledges from companies around the world. The simple math is that these corporations believe moving in a cleaner direction is in their best interests.

Current and planned capital investment in EV development now exceeds $100 billion by global automakers according to Reuters. Leading nations include Germany, China and the United States.

The second step in our investment process is to evaluate the impact of government policy on how secular trends progress, especially timelines, which are important to investors.

Continue Reading on Seeking Alpha.

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