Kevin Erdmann | TalkMarkets | Page 2

Kevin Erdmann

Private Investor
Contributor's Links: Idiosyncratic Whisk
My name is Kevin Erdmann. I write a blog that broadly covers the topics of economics, finance and speculation. I have an MS in Finance from the University of Arizona. I am currently writing and supporting books about the housing bubble and the financial crisis which are being published through ...more
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17 to 32 of 46 Posts
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February 2020 Yield Curve Update
Tuesday, March 3, 2020 10:16 AM EDT
This month appears to have presented the triggering event that will tip the Fed's hawkish bias over the tipping point.
In this article: IEF
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January 2020 Yield Curve Update
Thursday, February 6, 2020 12:02 AM EDT
Interest rates have declined back toward the August lows (though they have bounced back up a bit over the past couple of days). Generally, this month has continued the trend that suggests the Fed will be a bit behind the curve.
In this article: IEF
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When Will Interest Rates Bottom?
Wednesday, January 29, 2020 3:18 AM EDT
Since the short end of the yield curve inverted in late 2018, one way we could think about the Fed's posture is to infer from Eurodollar futures markets what the expected last rate cut will be.
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New Homes Vs. Existing Homes
Saturday, January 25, 2020 6:00 AM EDT
When the federal government made it effectively illegal to originate mortgages to many families after the financial crisis, the effect of that development was clear in the prices of homes.
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Recent Shifts In Housing May Be Related To GSE Activity
Friday, January 17, 2020 2:10 AM EDT
There has been a bit of a mystery recently in housing markets.
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December 2019 CPI Update
Tuesday, January 14, 2020 4:16 PM EDT
Not much to say. More of the same. Shelter inflation tracking over 3%, non-shelter core around 1.5%, and core CPI about 2.2%.
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December 2019 Yield Curve Update
Friday, January 3, 2020 9:00 PM EDT
The yield curve continues to press upward from the mid-year lows.
In this article: IEF
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November 2019 CPI Inflation
Saturday, December 14, 2019 4:33 PM EDT
Inflation remains in a holding pattern - about 2.3% core inflation, which consists of 3.3% shelter inflation and 1.6% non-shelter core inflation.
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Quarterly Report On Household Debt And Credit (2019 Q3)
Saturday, November 16, 2019 1:20 PM EDT
The average FICO score of borrowers started moving up in the second quarter of 2007, just before home prices started to collapse.
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A Postscript On The Review Of The Crisis
Saturday, November 16, 2019 10:20 AM EDT
I suspect some skeptical readers might find my summary lacking because it may seem as if I am writing off what was clearly a boom in residential investment and home building.It may be worth a clarification.
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A Review Of The Crisis Narrative
Friday, November 15, 2019 12:16 PM EDT
A commenter has asked me for a comprehensive review of the standard narrative and my objections to it.
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October 2019 Yield Curve Update
Friday, November 1, 2019 10:00 PM EDT
The yield curve still seems to be following the bearish timeline.
In this article: IEF
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September 2019 CPI Inflation And Yield Curve Updates
Tuesday, October 22, 2019 4:42 AM EDT
Cash is required to bid bond prices higher. But, the oddity with this cycle is that real estate borrowing has been repressed during the expansion.
In this article: IEF
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August 2019 Yield Curve Update
Thursday, September 5, 2019 4:40 AM EDT
The Fed seems to be tepid about their recent dovish turn. It would take quite an aggressive posture for them to get ahead of this.
In this article: IEF
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July 2019 CPI Inflation
Friday, August 16, 2019 6:40 PM EDT
Core inflation has recovered a bit in the last two months, but we remain in the context of relatively low non-shelter inflation and high shelter inflation, averaging out to roughly on-target total core inflation.
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Housing: Homes And Population Growth
Wednesday, July 24, 2019 1:48 PM EDT
Housing units per adult has actually started to level off. This is interesting because total permits and total starts are still below past averages.
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17 to 32 of 46 Posts
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