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Each week, well over a million readers turn to John Mauldin to better understand Wall Street, global markets, and the drivers of the world economy. And for good reason. John is a noted financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, a pioneering online commentator, and the publisher of one ...more

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AI Helps Spread China’s “Techno-Authoritarianism”
In 1911, just a few short years before World War I broke out, the head of the British Army, Sir William Gustavus Nicholson said, “Aviation is a useless and expensive fad advocated by a few individuals whose ideas are unworthy of our attention.”
A Muddle-Through Year
It’s forecast season again, the time when people like me tell people like you what will happen this year. Sadly, we are often wrong. It turns out predictions are hard, especially those about the future (with apologies to whoever said that first).
Looking Back And Forward
This week's letter will be in a different format, as I recently did an interview with my Mauldin Economics partner Ed D’Agostino where we talk about the past years and then some of the way we see the future.
Time To Consider A VAT?
First, let me wish you Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays or your favorite personal form of greetings for this time of year.
Finding Revenue
If you really want to reduce the federal debt, you don’t have to convince Congress of anything. You can just write a check. The Treasury Department gladly accepts gifts from anyone so inclined.
Fair Shares Of Debt
One thing you learn when writing about the debt problem, as I have been in recent weeks, is that many people think it’s not a problem at all. They believe we could easily balance the budget by (insert simplistic idea here).
The Unipolar World Is Over
Geopolitical tensions are running at multidecade highs. We all know about Israel v. Hamas and Russia v. Ukraine. But what about Guyana?
Healthcare, A Minor Major Problem
Back in the Great Financial Crisis era, someone quipped that the federal government had become a giant hedge fund with an army attached. That wasn’t far off.
Who’s In Charge Here?
The board of directors at OpenAI, which created ChatGPT, fired its wunderkind CEO, Sam Altman. Then, Microsoft hired Altman, along with OpenAI’s president and co-founder, who had quit in solidarity (a bunch of employees threatened to quit, too).
Socially Insecure
The federal government starts a new fiscal year every October 1. In a rational world, Congress would fulfill its responsibilities by passing bills before that date to authorize spending in the various agencies and programs.
Everyone Is Behind On AI
Only 30 or so companies have already successfully integrated AI across all aspects of their businesses. AI is a catalyst for rapid fundamental change.
De-Risking Is A Two-Way Street
Over the past couple of months, we’ve been talking about US efforts to fortify supply chains by reducing reliance on China. The US government is funneling over $900 billion toward reshoring through the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act.
What Could Go Wrong? - Saturday, Nov. 11
The Congressional Budget Office tries to inform Congress where the current policies will lead. That depends on a slew of assumptions that can be optimistic, pessimistic, or anywhere in between. Let's look at some of the CBO’s “alternative scenarios.”
My Affinity For Short-Term Interest Rates
When most people think of index arbitrage, they think of someone scalping stock index futures against an underlying basket of stocks, either electronically or by hand in the old days. But there is more to it than that.
Debt Scores
Identifying problems is great. Identifying solutions is even better, especially when the politicians who are supposed to be solving our big problems don’t even try.
Debt Catharsis
I have tried in various ways over the years to explain how balancing the budget, which sounds like it should be easy, is fiendishly hard—to the point even “fiscal conservatives” have mainly given up trying.
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