Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator

James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Forecasting Global Reported Cases Of Coronavirus
Healthcare risk isn’t usually the leading factor in economic analysis, but the rise of coronavirus (Covid-19) has changed the focus and the calculus.
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US Economy Still Expected To Expand At Moderate Pace In Q1
The coronavirus is weighing on economic estimates around the world and it’s likely that the US will eventually feel some of this pain. The degree of the macro price tag for America remains a guessing game at this point.
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Assessing The Damage After Monday’s Sharp Decline In Stocks
The increasingly hazy risk outlook linked to the coronavirus outbreak inspired a 3.35% haircut in the US stock market (S&P 500). The tumble was certainly a bracing counterpoint to the idea that sunny optimism is the only game in town.
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Commodities And US Bonds Rose Last Week As Stock Markets Fell
Risk-off sentiment driven by coronavirus worries took a bite out of stocks around the world last week. The selling has spilled over today’s trading in Asia and Europe and looks set to weigh on American shares once markets open in a few hours
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EC Will Recent Downside Momentum In Treasury Yields Accelerate?
The fear trade that’s animating Treasury buying is alive and well. Although you might have missed it by focusing on the soaring US equity market, the rush into safe-haven Treasuries has hardly missed a beat this year.
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US Business Cycle Risk Report - Thursday, Feb. 20
The US economy’s slowdown in the second half of last year continues to show signs of mildly rebounding in early 2020 but a preliminary estimate for March suggests the revival is fading.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

BWX SPDR Barclays Capital International Treasury Bond ETF
GM General Motors Company
GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
OIL iPath B S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR ETN
PCY PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Portfolio
RTL iShares FTSE NAREIT Retail Index Fund
SPY SPDR S&P 500
VTI VANGUARD TOT STK MKT ETF

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
Research Review - Volatility
Review of volatility research.
Macro Briefing - January 17, 2020
The must read news from this past week.
Macro Briefing: June 14, 2019
The news you can't miss.
Macro Briefing: June 4, 2019
Enjoy today's roundup of all you need to know.
Macro Briefing: 25 May 2018
Today's macro market roundup.
Macro Briefing: 1 May 2018
Macro briefing roundup for May 1, 2018.
Macro Briefing: 9 April 2018
May macro update for Monday, April 9th.

Work Experience

Editor
The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
September 2013 - Present (6 years 7 months)
The ETF Asset Class Performance Review (EACPR) is a weekly newsletter that offers a broad survey of market activity for the major asset classes and their principal sub-categories, based on a representative list of ETFs/ETNs. The format is designed to provide perspective in the search for timely rebalancing opportunities for managing asset allocation. Each issue reviews performance and related data through the end of the current week with a mix of tables and graphs.
Macro Blogger/Analyst (Freelance)
Saxo Bank
November 2012 - Present (7 years 5 months)
I write the "3 Numbers To Watch" blog (four days a week)
Editor
CapitalSpectator.com
March 2003 - Present (17 years 3 months)
Write/publish/edit investment and macro research and commentary.
Senior Writer
Wealth Manager magazine
January 2000 - December 2008 (9 years 1 month)
Senior Markets Writer, Bloomberg Wealth Manager, a trade magazine (formerly published by Bloomberg L.P. until 2005) for investment consultants advising wealthy individuals. My stories focused on a variety of financial and business topics for this professional group, ranging from analyzing trends in the economy and the capital markets to reviewing investment strategies, mutual funds, ETFs, hedge funds.
Investment Advisor
Senior Editor
June 1992 - January 2000 (7 years 9 months)
Senior editor, Dow Jones Investment Advisor magazine (formerly published by Dow Jones), a trade magazine for financial planners. My responsibilities included writing articles; editing stories written by freelancers; working with the art department on layouts and photography; and editorial planning for future issues. My reporting focused on the capital markets, investment strategies, economics and financial-planning industry news.

Education

Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey-New Brunswick
BA
1981 / 1983
Journalism/History
Middlesex County College
AA
1979 / 1981
Liberal Arts

Publications

Nowcasting The Business Cycle: A Practical Guide For Spotting Business Cycle Peaks
James Picerno
CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform
04/04/2014
owcasting The Business Cycle presents a practical guide for analyzing recession risk—the primary risk factor that drives success and failure in business, finance, wealth management, and so much more. Whether you’re an individual investor watching over your retirement account; the owner of a small business; a manager running a billion-dollar pension fund; or a CEO in charge of a global corporation, a large portion of triumph and defeat is closely linked with the broad swings in the economy. The business cycle, in other words, is the mother of all known (and recurring) risk factors. Accordingly, developing a process for assessing the likelihood of this threat is critical. Everyone needs a reliable, timely warning system that’s relatively uncomplicated and transparent.
James Picerno
James Picerno
Bloomberg Press
02/17/2010
Today’s modern portfolio theory is not your father’s MPT. It has undergone many changes in the past fifty years. Indeed, a new understanding of MPT has emerged, one that has a significant impact on managing asset allocation—especially in today’s turbulent markets. Dynamic Asset Allocation interprets and integrates the developments in modern portfolio theory: from the efficient-market hypothesis and indexing of decades past to strategies for building winning portfolios today. The book is filled with practical, hands-on advice for investors, including guidance on approaching investment as a risk-management task.
The Capital Spectator
James Picerno
James Picerno
A finance/investment/economics blog. The Capital Spectator has been quoted by a range of news organizations, including The Wall Street Journal, Reuters and others. In late-2009, the Eastern Economics Journal named Picerno as one of the nation’s “top economics bloggers” and he’s regularly polled by the Kauffman Foundation for its “Quarterly Survey Of Leading Economics Bloggers.”