James Byrne Blog | Investors On Edge Coming Down The Finish Line | Talkmarkets
Owner of Grand Street Advisors, LLC
Location: 600 Admiral Blvd, Kansas City, MO, United States
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James Byrne has been in the investment arena for 28 years. He cut his teeth on the trading desks of Wall Street in the Fixed Income Institutional Arbitrage area working on some of the largest global financial institutional sales and trading desks. Opportunity allowed a move to Kansas City ... more

Investors On Edge Coming Down The Finish Line

Date: Saturday, November 12, 2016 3:28 PM EDT

Theodore Roosevelt once was quoted, “In any moment of decision the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, the worst thing you can do is nothing”. Within this year's marathon election process we can at least agree neither candidate has taken the last option.  Both candidates seem quite at ease taking option #2.  Whether it is the Clinton’s seemingly tireless attempts at enriching themselves and the Clinton Foundation or to what’s being alleged as Trump’s grope-gate scandalous attacks on women.   We investors and market participants are plagued daily with the questions, “How did we get here?”, “What did we do to deserve this?”.    The good news is the race is coming to an end and we American’s proved we can weather near about any storm and this ones been a doozey.   Once tomorrow passes, we should have some certainty surrounding the leadership of this great country for another four years.  With that investors will want to return focus to the fundamentals so, let’s see where we’re at.  

 

 

Gross Domestic Product-GDP.  The first reading or estimate for third quarter GDP came in at a +2.9% rate of expansion.  Growth was driven by continued strong consumer demand up +2.1%.  Business spending also spruced up the headline figure where we witnessed a restocking of inventories in anticipation of a healthy holiday season.  Looking forward to the fourth quarters early estimates are tracking right around the +3%-+3.5% rate of expansion.   This rates a good not great when considering when the final growth for 2016 figures are tallied.    

 

Employment.  This past Friday the Labor Department released the monthly jobs figures better known as the Non-Farm Payroll figures.  This was a mixed bag to be sure.  The first reading showed the creation of +161,000.  This was below estimates coming into the day which ranged around the +175,000-+190,000.  This initial reading is subject to revision as the prior two months figures were as well.  September’s reading was revised up +35,000 to +191,000 from +156,000 and August’s figures tacked on an additional +9,000 to +176,000.   These revisions takes the three month average to +176,000.  The good news below the headline lies in the average hourly earnings which spiked +2.8%.  This is very good news as many labor force participants have felt left behind.  Seeing some of this wealth trickle down to the lower more economically sensitive groups is very positive going forward for sentiment and consumer spending.  All in all, pretty good.  

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