Hindsight 2020
Tuesday, December 8, 2020 8:18 PM EDT
2020 has been a difficult year to navigate, and not just in the financial markets.
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1 to 16 of 16 Posts
Get Ready For Bull Steepening
Thursday, October 10, 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Like all markets the treasury market is highly cyclical. The yield curve undulates from steep to flat as the underlying economic environment waxes and wanes.
Yield Curve Inversion Has Investors In A Tizzy
Sunday, August 18, 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Yield curve inversion is a warning sign. It does not guarantee recession nor does it mean corporate earnings are going to fall off a cliff.
In this article: IEF
Duration Is Not Defensive
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 7:15 AM EDT
The playbook for asset allocators and risk parity funds for a growth slowdown is to have exposure to longer-dated treasuries which, in theory, should perform well in a risk-off environment
Yield Curve Inversion Puts Bull Markets At Risk
Wednesday, March 27, 2019 3:00 PM EDT
Ignore yield curve inversion at your own peril.
In this article: SPX
The Fed Pivot
Wednesday, February 20, 2019 1:00 PM EDT
We are preparing for a recession, but the lack of systemic risk and consumer and corporate credit health lead us to believe that the next recession might be a shallow one.
Rates Are In The Driver’s Seat
Thursday, October 25, 2018 12:00 PM EDT
The third quarter was relatively benign for financial assets as volatility remained subdued, equity markets grinded towards new all-time highs and interest rates steadily tracked higher.
The Trending Fed
Monday, September 3, 2018 5:16 PM EDT
Trending markets and economies are not held hostage to time limits. Picking tops and recession forecasting is often a recipe for failure.
In this article: SPX
Being QE-Easy Could Make The FX Market Puke
Wednesday, July 25, 2018 12:00 PM EDT
The Japanese economy is not doomed by any means. Corporations and consumers will re-leverage when the time is right.
In this article: JYNFF
The United States Is Becoming More Normal
Saturday, June 30, 2018 4:25 AM EDT
Forward projections issued by Federal Reserve members after the June meeting sparked broad criticism for its “hawkish” guidance.
Relative Value Says 3% Won’t Hold
Tuesday, April 24, 2018 5:00 AM EDT
A number of fund managers have indicated that a 3% yield on the ten-year yield is where they would increase treasury positions.
Volatility Is Back
Wednesday, April 4, 2018 12:00 PM EDT
The most profitable trades of 2017 are suddenly not working.
In this article: XIV(RETIRED), VIX
Volatility Is Back!
Tuesday, February 13, 2018 9:00 PM EDT
Investors have been caught off-guard with the recent spike in volatility as the most successful strategy of the last decade, selling volatility, unwinds.
Don’t Fear Headlines, Fear Rates
Thursday, September 21, 2017 12:00 PM EDT
Dovish Central Bank policy for the last thirty years has been a response to the demographic and globalization impulses that have driven persistent low wage growth, disinflation, low investment spending, and a savings glut.
In this article: GLD, JJC (RETIRED)
Central Banks Are Waking Up
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 4:15 PM EDT
Central Banks are slowly waking up to the fact that they cannot fix structural economic issues. In fact, evidence from the great monetary experiment of the last decade, indicates that they probably enhance them.
Breadth And Taxes
Wednesday, February 22, 2017 3:16 PM EDT
Donald Trump made headlines last week with his suggestion that a proposal for tax-reform is on the immediate horizon, and that it would be nothing short of “phenomenal.”
1 to 16 of 16 Posts
