Harry Dent Blog | Will We See A U.S. Split? | Talkmarkets
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Harry S. Dent Jr. studied economics in college in the 1970s, receiving his MBA from Harvard Business School, where he was a Baker Scholar and was elected to the Century Club for leadership excellence. Harry grew to find the study of economics vague and inconclusive and became so disillusioned by ... more

Will We See A U.S. Split?

Date: Friday, October 7, 2016 12:17 PM EDT

People don’t think I’m being serious when I say that this country could experience a split that makes Brexit look like a tempest in a teacup.

I’m talking about our country splitting in half (perhaps into even smaller segments) and I’m dead serious! While this isn’t a certainty, it’s clearly a possibility you should plan for.

There’s an ever-widening political/social gulf between the right and left. Any middle ground for compromise or agreement shrinks with every passing day. It’s like the Nothing in The Never Ending Story… dissent and social unrest this dark, ominous cloud devouring anything and everything in its path as it closes in on itself.

Of course, when I say “split,” that doesn’t necessarily mean the creation of totally separate nations (although that’s not totally out of the question), but the formation of clear red and blue zones, each with different social, regulatory and fiscal policies. And that could be as devastating as the North/South split coming into the Civil War.

Pew Research, the best general non-partisan research organization in my mind, shows the level of polarization in the U.S. today best in this chart…

Immigration Adjusted Birth Index

Just look at the widening split between the median Democrat and the median Republican on a liberal-to-conservative scale of one to 10 between 1994 and 2004!

Now the divide has shifted from about 10% to 35%, favoring the Republican side a bit more.

But more important, among the politically engaged, the split is much wider! It’s closer to 55% apart, with the majority of both on the far left and far right!

In 1994, 64% of Republicans were more conservative than the median liberal. Today, that number is 92%.

Democrats shifted from 70% being more liberal than the median Republican to 94% between 1994 and 2014.

Thirty-six percent of Republicans see the Democratic Party as a threat to the nation’s well-being. Conversely, 26% of Democrats view the Republican party as such a threat.

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