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Global Economic Intersection (Econintersect) focuses on the economic effects on finance, investing, social interactions, and politics / public policy.  It features original economic commentary, debate, and economic analysis of economic indicators.  It features original ... more

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When Quantitative Tightening Is Not Quantitative Tightening
After a lengthy period of operating at the zero lower bound and three rounds of large-scale asset purchases, the Fed began its normalization of monetary policy in recent years.
January 2019 Headline New Home Sales Declined
The headlines say new home sales declined and continues in contraction. Median and average sales prices marginally declined - and the backlog of unsold homes declined.
February 2019 Consumer Expectations: Inflation Expectations Edge Down After Holding Steady For Ten Months
Expectations about the U.S. unemployment rate improved, while job finding and job loss expectations remained stable.
A No-Deal Brexit Could Put Nearly 20% Of British Jobs At Risk And Disproportionately Hurt Weaker Regions
A meaningful vote on whether to rule out a no-deal Brexit could take place as late as March 12, less than three weeks before the UK is due to leave the EU, with or without a deal - and the clock is ticking down.
February 2019 Job Cuts Highest In Over 3 Years
The shortest month of the year saw the highest number of job cuts in over three-and-a-half years, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to cut 76,835 positions from their payrolls in February.
Let Bank Supervisors Do Their Jobs
Healthy banking sector. Healthy economy. So goes the thinking. Banks play a vital role in economic life - whether for individual consumers or more broadly across an entire economy and a strong and stable banking system is a matter of public concern.
Housing Indicators To Watch In 2019
Can the housing market provide a signal about the direction of the economy?
Mexico's Output Growth Slows In The Fourth Quarter
Mexico’s economy grew an annualized 1.2 percent in fourth quarter 2018 after expanding 3.4 percent in the third quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent in 2018 (fourth quarter/fourth quarter).
January 2019 Small Business Optimism Returning To Normal Levels As Owners Express Uncertainty About The Future
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped 3.2 points in January, as owners continued hiring and investing, but expressed rising concern about future economic growth.
January 2019 Consumer Expectations: Consumer Optimism Ebbs Although Inflation Expectations Hold Steady
The January 2019 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that while short- and medium-term inflation expectations were unchanged households were generally less optimistic about the economy and about future changes in their financial situation.
January 2019 Job Cuts Up 21%
Employers at U.S.-based companies announced plans to cut 52,988 jobs from their payrolls in January, 20.7 percent higher than the 43,884 announced in December.
Return Of The Bond Vigilante
Bond market vigilantes are a vanishing species. The label refers to bond traders who are averse to fiscal profligacy but also captures politicians who are wedded to small government.
Mortgage Rates Are Expected To Rise Further This Year To Their Highest Level In A Decade
Mortgage rates are expected to rise further this year to their highest level in a decade, affecting home buyer’s monthly payments and lessening the dollar increase in home-purchase lending.
Government Shutdown Impact - New Layoff Announcements
An estimated 800,000 Federal workers missed their first paychecks last week. That could mean the economy lost a pre-tax $4.3B last month, and each month that workers are unpaid.
Home Price Gains Continued To Slow
National home prices increased 5.1 percent year over year in November 2018 and are forecast to increase 4.8 percent from November 2018 to November 2019.
November 2018 Consumer Expectations: Inflation Outlook Is Steady Despite Falling Home Price Growth Expectations
Expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher increased for the third consecutive month, while expectations about income and spending growth remained stable.
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