Frank Holmes Blog | Will The China Bulls Turn Out For The Year Of The Pig? | Talkmarkets
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Frank Holmes is the CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes purchased a controlling interest in U.S. Global Investors in 1989 and became the firm’s chief investment officer in 1999. In 2006, Mr. Holmes was selected mining fund manager of the year by ... more

Will The China Bulls Turn Out For The Year Of The Pig?

Date: Wednesday, February 6, 2019 6:58 PM EDT

Happy Chinese New Year 2019 the year of the pig

Happy Year of the Pig! This week marks the start of China’s Spring Festival, during which an estimated 3 billion trips will be made using the country’s massive transportation network of roads and rail. That figure is a slight rise from the same period last year, despite slowing economic growth prompted by trade tensions with the U.S. and a strengthening dollar.

Ctrip, China’s largest online travel agency, forecasts that more than 400 million people will travel across the country for family reunions, while some 7 million will go abroad.

To prepare for the additional travel demand, China built as many as 10 new railways at the end of last year and expanded the length of its high-speed rail system to 29,000 kilometers, or around 18,000 miles. Meanwhile, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) expects more than 532,000 flights to be scheduled during the week-long travel rush, a 12 percent increase from last year, according to China Daily.

China has nearly 220 billion dollars in new infrastructure projects since the start of 2018

Since the start of 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planner, has approved 27 large-scale infrastructure projects, totaling nearly $220 billion. Among the largest is the expansion of the Shanghai Metro, already the world’s largest transit system by route length. The $44 billion project, to be completed by 2023, will add six new subway lines and three intercity railways. 

Looking for a Resolution to the Trade Dispute

If you’ve been paying attention, you might have noticed that much of the news involving China right now is negative. Its manufacturing sector is slowing, and economic growth in 2018 was at a nearly-30-year low.

I believe this is only a temporary lull as we await a resolution to the U.S.-China trade war and a fall in the U.S. dollar, which has made American goods more expensive to its trade partners. So I remain bullish on China and the surrounding region, and I believe now might be an advantageous time to gain exposure.

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