Founder, F.A.S.T. Graphs
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F.A.S.T. Graphs™ founded by Charles (Chuck) Carnevale.  The F.A.S.T. Graphs™ tool takes all the hours of manual graphing of business fundamentals and reduces it to seconds, giving you critical information in an instant. This charting tool has been used by Chuck and his family ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

3M Company: Finally, A Great Dividend Growth Company Becoming A Good Investment
3M has recently become a prudent and sound investment based on the principles of valuation and considering the extreme quality of this Dividend Aristocrat.
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EC Slim Pickings In The Utilities Sector
The Utilities Sector is largely recognized as being comprised of some of the slowest growing companies in all the market.
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4 Transportation Sector Research Candidates: Do You Dare Have Your Money Travel With These Stocks?
Companies operating in this sector can see their operating results affected by fuel costs, demand, labor costs, and even geopolitical events.
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5 Rare Fairly Valued Companies In The Technology Services Sector
segments: Global Business Services (GBS), Global Infrastructure Services (GIS) and United States Public Sector (USPS). The GBS se
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Is The Death Of Retail Trade Greatly Exaggerated?
The Retail Trade Sector has a long legacy of being influx.
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Investment Opportunities In The Producer Manufacturing Sector
Although I consider the overall stock market as represented by the S&P 500 to be overvalued, not all stocks are overvalued.
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Comments

Latest Comments
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?
3 years ago

Jim,

Thanks for your input. However, with all due respect, I suggest you are misconstruing what I was showing with AVP. I simply used it as an example to illustrate what a true value trap looked like. Nothing in my analysis was in reference to what might be happening with AVP going forward. However, since you brought it up, if you look closely at the FAST Graph in the article, you will notice that estimates suggest a strong recovery in 2016. On that basis, it could be argued that a recovery is in the making.

Nevertheless, to repeat and clarify; my utilization of AVP in this article had nothing to do with the company’s future. Instead, it was simply used as an example to illustrate how a company’s stock price would track a long-term trend in falling earnings, even when historical current valuations appeared reasonable.

Regards,

Chuck

In this article: VFC, AVP, HRL, KMB, MCD, PNR, SHW, WBA
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?
3 years ago

Susan,

Please see reply to Wax above.

Regards,

Chuck

In this article: VFC, AVP, HRL, KMB, MCD, PNR, SHW, WBA
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?
3 years ago

Wax and Susan,

I’m sorry you are finding FAST Graphs confusing. Actually, they are very simple to understand once you know what you are looking at. FAST is an acronym for fundamentals analyzer software tool. What makes this stock research tool different is that it focuses on the business behind the stock. The orange line on the graph represents a reference of intrinsic value based on widely-accepted formulas for valuing a business. The orange line is drawn by placing a multiple on each year’s earnings.

In the Pentair graph, the orange line represents a P/E ratio of 15 across the entire graph. Therefore, if the price is touching the orange line anywhere, the stock is trading at a fair value P/E ratio of 15. Conversely, if the price is below the line, it is trading at a lower P/E - and vice versa.

The black line on the graph represents monthly closing stock prices overlaid on to the graph. When the price is above the orange line, overvaluation is indicated, and when the price is below the orange line, undervaluation is indicated. Note how the price tracks earnings over the long-term, and when it gets disconnected it inevitably moves back into alignment. Since price is currently below the orange line, which represents fair value, Pentair appears undervalued with a P/E ratio of 11.2. On a live graph you would be able to point to the orange line and a pop-up would appear indicating what a fair value price would be today.

Finally, if you are interested, here is a link to a paper titled The Interpretation of the Earnings and Price Correlated FAST Graphs Made Simple that will assist you in understanding FAST Graphs.

www.fastgraphs.com/.../...aphs%20Made%20Simple....

Regards,

Chuck

In this article: VFC, AVP, HRL, KMB, MCD, PNR, SHW, WBA
How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?
3 years ago

Wall Street Jack,

Thanks for your comment, I found it interesting. However, there is a difference between a down year where the company was still profitable, but earnings were slightly lower than the previous year versus a company that is actually generating losses. Most cyclical companies will go through periods of rising and falling earnings over time. However, the strong ones will always be profitable in each and every year. In other words, the earnings of many cyclicals tend to be always positive. Frankly, like you, I would never buy a company that was producing losses.

Regards,

Chuck

In this article: VFC, AVP, HRL, KMB, MCD, PNR, SHW, WBA
1 to 4 of 4 comments

STOCKS I FOLLOW

AAPL Apple Inc.
CELG Celgene Corporation
CLX The Clorox Company
CVS CVS Health Corporation
LMT Lockheed Martin
PG Procter & Gamble Co.
RTN Raytheon Company

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