Edward Lambert Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Researcher of Effective Demand in Economics
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Independent researcher for a unique model of Effective Demand.

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E A Better Way To Calculate The Output Gap
The CBO has a wrong calculation for the output gap. I have a better one. After the 2008 crisis, the CBO showed a large negative gap. My equation did not. I waited for the CBO number to return to my number, which it did perfectly throughout 2019.
Capital Income Is Consuming Less
Capital Income has been consuming less and saving more in the last two quarters. This trend would lead to a recession.
Inflation & Changes In The Number Of Employed
Looks like some correlation between inflation & year over year number of employed. More workers, more new demand.
Currently At Inflection Point Of Unemployment
Economy is currently at limit of unemployment where either labor share rises, capacity utilization drops or unemployment starts rising. (
Approaching Effective Demand Limit Again
The economy is once again heading to the effective demand limit, which last happened in 3rd quarter 2014. Capacity utilization drops and corporate profits become a zero sum game. There are cascading effects which could bring a recession.
Capital Is Optimizing Again
In my calculations of utilization of labor and capital, there is a derivative of one equation that tells to what extent capacity and labor is being optimized.
Projecting The Effective Demand Limit
The economy expands in terms of capacity utilization until the effective demand limit is reached.
E Why No Inflation Near Full-Employment? Keynes Said It Is Not Necessary
Some economists are puzzled why low unemployment near the Fed's full-employment rate is not producing inflation. Keynes said it was not a necessary consequence. The key is to understand effective demand.
Effective Demand Model Did Very Well
Just to look back... My model of effective demand performed very well. The line bounced off of the "zero lower bound" of effective labor share.
E Lack Of Wisdom Is Prevailing
Where the economy is headed in the medium term? When policy promotes net private benefits, social negative externalities climb higher.
E Do People Really Think There Will Be Inflation When Capacity Utilization Is So Low?
If demand increases, a firm can either increase production or raise prices. When capacity utilization is low, a firm prefers to increase utilization of capacity rather than raise prices... and capacity utilization is currently quite low.
E What Nobody Sees... Effective Demand
As markets look forward to Trump, nobody sees how close the economy is to the Effective Demand Limit.
Inflation As Mouse Not Being Chased
Inflation pressures are low and will stay low. This article shows that projected increases in nominal rates will not push inflation much higher.
Projecting A Fed Rate Path
Using a model of Effective Demand to project a path for the Fed rate now that fiscal stimulus is on the table.
One Trend Toward A Recession: YoY % Change Of U3 & U6
We're heading towards a recession.
1 to 15 of 15 Posts