David Moenning | TalkMarkets | Page 24
Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital Research
Contributor's Links: Heritage Capital Research
Portfolio management consultant with more than 30 years of investment management experience. Focuses on a risk-managed approach to capital markets via modernized portfolio design and dynamic adaptation to ever-changing macro environments. Founder of Heritage Capital Research, an independent ...more

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Building Modern Portfolios – Step 1
Currently, a passive approach to the U.S. stock and bond market is all the rage. The money flow stats on funds and ETFs make this very clear – money is flowing into passive index ETFs at an eye-popping rate.
How Do You Outperform?
As a portfolio manager, how do you outperform?” The easy answer is you buy stuff that provides a return which is higher than your benchmark. Bam. Done, right? Well… not exactly.
A More Cautious Stance Makes Sense
If the S&P 500 moves to fresh new highs, a “blow off” phase could easily begin. But for now, I have moved to a more cautious stance.
Is The New Narrative All About Confidence?
Those expecting to see the stock market indices crumble in response to the GOP’s failure to get their healthcare bill passed are probably disappointed with the action seen over the last two days.
What’s The Narrative Now?
Prior to last week, the market narrative was based on hope. Hope that corporate tax cuts would bring cash and jobs back home and make America great again. Hope that tax reform would help the middle class.
Some Caution Appears Warranted
The overall message from this week’s review of the models/indicators is that things have weakened enough that the possibility of a meaningful pullback in the near-term is elevated.
All About “Strategery”
Why did traders and their computers exercise restraint in the face of an obvious “sell first and ask questions later” opportunity?
Positioning In Front Of Big, Bad Events
To market watchers, it is fairly clear that the fate of the current stock market trend is tied to today’s House vote on the Republican’s healthcare bill designed to “repeal and replace” Obamacare.
The Trump (Speed) Bump
While a pullback has been expected by just about everyone in the game, the speed at which the vehicle hit the bump still managed to send passengers flying in all directions.
The Bond Market Is Doing What?
How can bond prices be rising when the perfect storm is obviously on the horizon? Didn’t Yellen say that the rate hikes were going to continue for the next 2+ years?
The Message From The Indicators Is…
The message from the indicator boards this week hasn’t changed to any great degree as the bulls remain in charge and should be given the benefit of the doubt. However, too many big-picture models are flashing warning signs for comfort.
Quick Take: Sideways Is The New Down (For Now)
Stocks may be embarking on yet another sideways consolidation phase.
“The Simple Message Is…”
Janet Yellen has continued this policy of transparency during her tenure as Fed Chair. Over the past few weeks, it has become obvious to Fed watchers that Yellen’s bunch was going to hike rates this week. And hike they did.
Lines In The Sand - Fed Day
The futures market is pricing in a nearly 100% chance that Yellen & Co. are going to raise the Fed Funds target rate by 0.25% today. As such, there is likely to be very little drama surrounding the announcement.
While We Wait…
Before we begin, though, let’s be clear about one thing – there is no such thing as a crystal ball that can predict the future in Ms. Market’s game.
The Next Act In The Play…
This week’s meeting of Janet Yellen and her merry band of central bankers will be the focal point for the markets. In case you’ve been sleeping under a rock for the past month, note that the markets are expecting the Fed to raise rates on Wednesday.
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