David Merkel | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Founder, Aleph Blog
Contributor's Links: The Aleph Blog Aleph Investments, LLC
David J. Merkel, CFA — 2010-present, I run my own equity asset management shop, called Aleph Investments. I manage separately managed stock and bond accounts for upper middle class individuals and small institutions. My minimum is $100,000. From 2008-2010, I was the more

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Should You Become An Actuary?
You can become an actuary if you are good at math, statistics, quantitative methods, and are reasonably good at taking exams. That can get you in the door, but oddly, there‘s another set of skills that the best actuaries have.
GameStop: The Voting Machine Versus The Weighing Machine
Ben Graham used to say that the stock market was a voting machine in the short-run, and a weighing machine in the long-run.
The Price Of Destroying Key Prices
When did US economic policy begin going badly wrong? There were two major errors, and both happened in the (drumroll) Reagan administration.
Yield = Poison, Pt. 4
There are times when the bond market is running so hot that it seems those who are prudent risk-takers are fools, as they are collapsing risk positions and conserving capital to play for another day.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, September 2020 Update
Welcome to Wonderland, boys, and girls. At the end of the third quarter, the S&P 500 was priced to return 2.92%/yr for the next ten years, with no adjustment for inflation.
What’s It Worth Now?
The stock market, and to a lesser extent the bond market, is mystifying to most average people.
What Is Liquidity? (Part IX)
Almost every asset is liquid in a bull market. Only the highest quality assets are liquid in a bear market.
They Can’t Help You, Redux
The Fed has encouraged public and private debt to the degree that bailouts by the Fed and Congress must happen, or we will get depression.
What Makes An Asset Safe? (Part 2)
The 1970s were a unique period of peacetime inflation.
The Rules, Part LXVII
We are in the midst of the biggest expansion of debt that the US and the world has seen.
Mad Bombers
Frenzies to buy are usually tame compared with frenzies to sell. There is an urgency to preserving value that makes the seller particularly zealous in getting out rapidly.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, June 2020 Update
At present, the S&P 500 is priced to return 3.51%/year over the next ten years. Now if you were buying some ten-year investment grade corporate bonds, you might expect something around 2%. Is that 1.5% over corporates worth it?
Persistent High Volatility
When valuations are high, volatility is typically high as well. When interest rates are low, volatility also is high. Why?
Diversification Has Its Limits
DIversification has mostly ceased to be a free lunch. I say this because, with so many clever investors in the market, most risk assets have become highly correlated with one another.
Crowding The Market In Large Cap Tech
What happens when a party or parties take on an investment position that is large relative to the amount they can afford to lose?
Only A Trickle
The S&P 500 model is forecasting returns of 2.23%/year over the next 10 years. Even if you compare that to the 10-year Treasury Note yielding 0.66%, that’s not enough of a risk premium. We are in the 97th percentile of valuations.
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