Author, The Great Recession Blog
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My path to writing this blog began as a personal journey. Prior to the start of this so-called “Great Recession,” my ex-wife had a family home that was an inheritance from her mother. I worked as a property manger at the time, and near the end of 2007, I could tell from rumblings in ... more

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The Bears Have It Right: Economy Went Polar Opposite Of Bullish Predictions
The more polar opposite from bulls the bears went, the more right they were in 2018.
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Powell Put Sends Stocks Soaring
Powell claimed the Fed is not designing interest rates to keep the market climbing. If that is true, recession must be near!
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Federal Reserve Confesses Sole Responsibility For All Recessions
In a surprisingly candid admission, two former Federal Reserve chairs have stated that the Federal Reserve alone is responsible for creating all recessions in the United States.
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Something Wicked This Way Comes. Is It The Fed? Is It The President? Is It The Treasurer?
The Fed, the president, and his treasurer are doing their utmost to stoke fear and panic in markets that have every reason to fear them.
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Stock Market’s Stars Are Crossed For A Major Upset
Goldman Sachs now says that the stock market’s twin peaks this summer were actually a strong indicator that the market was crashing into a full-blown bear market, not just a correction.
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Epocalypse Ahead On Highway To Hell For Global Economy And US Stock Market
What is really happening is that, as the Fed is letting the air out of all the tires, all the stock markets in the world — since the dollar is a global currency — are becoming less stable.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Market At The Crossroads
2 days ago

This sounds like the usual pro-bull story that tries its hardest to recreate a bullish narrative in bad times. I predicted the stock market would take its first plunge in January of 2018, which it did at the end of January in a record-breaking drop at the time. I predicted the market's second leg down in this protracted crash would not come until summer, which it did when the FAANG stocks that had been the market generals for a decade utterly crashed (falling by about 40%). And I predicted that the market's worst leg down would be its third event in October, and it was. Why was the future predicable. Not because I'm divinely inspired or extra brilliant or have a crystal ball or have the market rigged.... but because the Federal Reserve has the market rigged and it told us exactly what its balance-sheet unwind schedule would be. It was a fundamental deduction to conclude that the start of QT in the fall of 2017 would not amount to much because it was so small that its only effect would be the fear that it was beginning, but that when the Fed doubled that rate in January, bond yields would spike and start drawing money out of stocks. Then, the market would digest this new reality, new tax breaks would fully kick in with economic benefits that were frontloaded to fuel a massive built-in guarantee of stock buybacks, which would carry the market along until summer when the Fed's third increase in its Great Recover Rewind speed would click in at a level that would finally start to get actually serious. And then, at then, just in time for an October surprise, they would kick things up to full velocity -- a rate of financial tightening equal to 5/8 of the massive doses of financial loosening they used to goose the market to heady heights in the first place. If you look at a graph of any market index it is undeniably obvious that the market blew all to pieces in January of 2018. The dive down then was not just a jolt down, it broke the markets trend line like a falling person breaks their back landing backward on a stair rail. It couldn't be more obviously broken, and the market has failed to recover throughout the Fed's tightening period. So, until the Fed stops it Great Recover Rewind, it is going to keep rewinding its fake recovery all the back to the pit of the recession where it started. --David Haggith The Great Recession Blog

Something Wicked This Way Comes. Is It The Fed? Is It The President? Is It The Treasurer?
1 month ago

Kind of like The Mnuchin Candidate. I like the concept!

The Run Ends At The Highs
6 months ago

Lance, Lance, Lance, with so much in the middle of your article about how fragile the market is, how the Fed (and other central banks) will not be there to provide support if something goes wrong, and how much contagion possibility exists with the Turkish lira crisis, why on earth would you be counseling clients to cautiously move up to full 100% equity exposure -- especially in an article with the giveaway title "The Run Ends at the Highs." Here we are moving back to an all-time high at at time with all the fragility you describe, and you're counseling investors to buy in more??? --David Haggith The Great Recession Blog

In this article: GLD
Here’s Why Crypto Is Correcting ... And Why It’s Temporary
1 year ago

Good point. It can turn the market from leaning toward being a black market to being a mainstream out-in-the-daylight market. Right now, a lot of people are afraid to get involved because it is unregulated, prey to hackers, and obscure.

In this article: BITCOMP
Do Bond Prices Have Momentum?
1 year ago

Thanks, Anastasjia. (Love that name by the way.) I'm sure there can be many other factors, but I think supply and demand is the big one another. Another factor would be opportunity cost. If you're going to buy a bond, you have to ask yourself, "What other opportunities are there for me with this much money that are similar in risk, but maybe better in reward, or the same in reward but lower in risk." So, right now, with stocks looking risky in response to what was happening in the bond market, some people might actually decide to buy and hold bonds for safety (different than buying into a bond fund because bond funds can crash due to lack of liquidity (like a run on the bank); but bonds can be safely held and keep paying predictable interest for years. So, there is an equilibrium kind of force that sets in when stocks start to really crash, and people move to buying and holding bonds directly. That onslaught of buying creates more demand for the bonds and starts lowering their interest back down. That in turn, will make the stock market that is nervous right now a little less nervous if it sees bond yields going back down. In fact, one of the things that makes it nervous about seeing bond yields go up is that investors fear other investors will move out of stocks. So, it's a dynamic relationship like a game of tug-o-war.

In this article: TYX, TNX
Here’s Why Crypto Is Correcting ... And Why It’s Temporary
1 year ago

Is getting clarification on gov't regs when "clarification" means getting regulated actually going to boost cryptos? It will, if it is effective, bar a lot of corrupt activity that is likely happening in the crypto market now (such as price rigging?) and may take away a few customers who use crypto to evade the law (such as to evade taxes or to launder money). Regulations will seek to cover all those things, which will reduce the number of customers and the number of transactions while increasing the cost of managing cryptos.

In this article: BITCOMP
Do Bond Prices Have Momentum?
1 year ago

It is simplistic to write as if the only factor driving interest on bonds up faster is inflation. Look at the numerous people who KNOWINGLY purchased bonds with negative real interest, meaning that they knew, once inflation was factored in, the interest on their bond would actually be negative. That shows there are other major factors in what people will pay for a bond and, therefore, where its interest can go than just inflation. People were scared and were willing to take calculated losses from inflation on the belief that those bonds were the only safe place to stand. Inflation is only one factor that drive interest rates in bond. Fear, as described above, is another. Therefore, if you have reason to believe fear will be rising, you have reason to believe upward momentum in interest rates will back off. The biggest factor of all is supply and demand. It's quite simple, if you have a massive supply of bonds to sell and cannot attract anywhere near enough buyers to raise all the money you need, you're going to have to up your interest game. Inflation being anticipated down the road only means you have to up it for that, too. So, when it comes to momentum, if you can look down the road and see that the supply of bonds is burgeoning AND you can see that the demand for bonds from the largest buyer of bonds (the Federal Reserve) is decreasing, you KNOW (even in an inflation neutral setting) there is going to be upward momentum building in interest rates. Of course, if you can know that inflation will go up or down, you should factor that into your assumptions about the momentum of bond interest as well.

In this article: TYX, TNX
Technically Speaking: Have "Tax Cuts" Been "Priced In" Already?
1 year ago

While you are right that the tax reduction is priced in in terms of earnings per share after taxes, I don't see that you have factored in how the tax savings will also be used for additional stock buybacks, reducing the number of shares in the denominator and increasing the demand for shares. I also don't see how you've factored in how the income-tax cuts will increase before-tax earnings by increasing everyone's buying power. There are more dynamics at play, so I think the market has more room to run (even though I hate this tax plan).

In this article: SPX, DJI
Questions On Inflation
1 year ago

Great questions -- especially the notion that the reversal of QE could cause money that is already tied up in stocks to move to other areas of the economy. It is the movement of money, not the storage of it, that causes inflationary effects on prices.

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PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
Death Of The Great Recovery: Stocks In Bondage And Bonds In The Stockade
The recovery is collapsing exactly on the schedule I laid out a year ago as the Fed's Great Unwind gains momentum.
SAILING INTO MASSIVE STOCK-MARKET CRASH: Irrational Exuberance During Trump Rally Exceeded All Records!
If I can show you that economists, central bankers and stock analysts are all blind to the most obvious setup for a stock-market crash ever, then you’ll realize we are perfectly poised for potentially the greatest stock market crash in history.
Summer Epocalypse Countdown: Trump Turmoil Takes Top Off Trump Rally
When financial Armageddon arrives, it can hit in a flash like a dangerous rogue wave — the kind that rises up when two big waves from different storms intersect and merge into a single wave big enough to capsize a ship.
The Federal Reserve’s Stock-Market Supernova
After years of trying to create a "wealth effect", the Federal Reserve is slowly dialing down its special-effects machine, but the stock market is providing dot-com-era proof of completely irrational exuberance.
Tiny Trump Hands Deliver Teeny Tiny Tax Plan, US Stocks Collapse In Despair
After six months of laboring late into the nights, this fourth rendition of Trump’s plan has not changed much from election day, and it’s equal in depth and detail to the kind of outline you come up with after a day of brainstorming.
You Got Trumped! Winning Horse In Presidential Race Was Trojan
In April Fools month Trump revealed the many ways in which he fooled the people who hoped he'd be their champion. What a difference a hundred days makes.
Trump Obamacare Repeal Blew Up Bigly Because Of A House Divided Against Itself
The first attempt by Trump and his party to see if they can do anything together was by everyone’s account a dismal failure. Even Paul Ryan owned the enormity of failure. Lou Dobbs criticizes Trump & Party while Sean Hannity regales Republicans.
2017 Economic Headwinds: Housing Bubbles Popping Up And Just Plain Popping Everywhere
Housing bubbles are showing signs of bursting all over the world, particularly in the US, Canada and Australia. With bubbles now at the peak of popping everywhere, the coming collapse could make the US crash of 2007-2009 look like a warm-up act.

Work Experience

Writer
The Great Recession Blog
October 2011 - Present (7 years 6 months)

I write a blog on the economic collapse (http://TheGreatRecession.info/blog). I launched it on October 4, 2011. 

It began as an offshoot from humorous articles on the economy that I self-syndicated to The Hudson Valley Business Journal, The Valley City Times-Record (North Dakota), The Daily Herald (Tennessee) and a news website in Israel and another in Australia.
 

General Manager
Black Mountain Ranch
August 2012 - September 2014 (2 years 2 months)

Run a 174-acre private club with horses, pastures, barns, golf course, ball field, gymnasium, indoor and outdoor swimming pools, horseshoe pits, outdoor volleyball, miniature golf, adult and teen lounges, craft room, wood shop, outdoor stage, and campsites ... set at the gateway to the Mount Baker National Forest in the Cascade Mountains.

Education

University of Washington
Certificate, Screenwriting
1992 / 1993
Western Washington University
Bachelor of Arts
1979 / 1984
English

Publications