Chris Macintosh Blog | Risk Happens Fast | Talkmarkets - Page 3
Founder of Capitalist Exploits
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Baptized into the world of business and travel at a young age I’ve subsequently lived in multiple countries, traveled to many more and built myself a small fortune investing in businesses and markets that I spend an extraordinary amount of time doing due diligence on.

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Risk Happens Fast

Date: Tuesday, November 1, 2016 8:43 PM EDT

EURCHF

The truth is that even though the situation was untenable and the cost to going long the CHF extremely low, it was unpopular since the market believed in the status quo, and its ability to sustain the unsustainable.

The Lesson

Experience has taught us that typically the greater the asymmetry, the less the opportunity for us to position when a move has already begun. There isn’t time! Risk happens fast.

The opportunities we focus on present asymmetry and often happen all at once. It is important to be positioned BEFORE the move. This requires risk management, and intelligent position sizing.

Thinking you will get to position once a move starts in a market exhibiting extraordinary asymmetry is a bit like thinking you can get out of the way when Seagal gets to work on you. It’s probably too late though perhaps I should use someone other than Seagal nowadays since the only thing “under siege” appears to be his arteries.

Discipline and patience are imperative. You will inevitably be a day or two early at the train station and waiting sucks but a minute too late and it’s a loooong walk.

What to Expect

Investing in such opportunities you can rest assured we have to suffer fools parroting phrases such as “being early is the same thing as being wrong” until a collapse demonstrates that actually no, it’s really not.

Hubris is one sign that asymmetry may exist. Volatility and the pricing of volatility is usually key. In scrounging around the global macro landscape in search of opportunity, and in speaking with the dozens and dozens of truly great investment minds, one thing that so often becomes vividly apparent is that the very best investment minds in the world are never complacent and you shouldn’t be either.

Complacency

Have a great weekend!

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– Chris

“This kind of event is the kind of thing that will trigger volatility. This is not a one day thing now.” — Darren Courtney-Cook, Head of trading at Central Markets Investment Management on the SNB abandoning the euro peg

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