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Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide.

The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions:

(1) How much should we ... more


Latest Posts
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After An Extremely Rare Move In Bonds, How Have Stocks And Bonds Performed In The Past?
When investors are concerned about future economic outcomes they migrate toward more defensive-oriented long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (TLT). The recent surge in demand for defensive bonds caused an extremely rare and extended look on charts of TLT.
Learning From The 1998, 2002, 2009, 2011, And 2016 Stock Market Lows
1998, 2002, 2009, 2011, and 2016 all featured sharp S&P 500 drops followed by relatively rare and rapid shifts in market breadth.
FV Has The Stock Market Reached A Point Of No Return?
Topping process? Studies review market from new angles, including a look at how companies survive and thrive over decades - or don't.
Testing A Recent Market Hypothesis
To date, the market has not done anything to seriously jeopardize the original finding of keeping an open mind about better than expected outcomes in the stock market over the next 2-3 years.
Trade War: Escalation Phase
The markets are adjusting to the shift from a cooperative phase in the trade war to an escalation phase.
Long-Term Vs. Intermediate-Term
The market has moved a long way since making a V-bottom late in 2018 and is starting to show some signs of slowing momentum on shorter-term timeframes.
Rare Shift In P&F Buy Signals
A rare shift recently took place in the NYSE Bullish Percent Index.
Short-Term Momentum
Given the duration and magnitude of the current rally, concerns still remain. However, Tuesday’s session did provide some notable short-term shifts on the S&P 500’s daily chart.
Rare Shift In Stock/Bond Ratio
The commodity channel index can be used to identify rare and extreme shifts in investor conviction.
The Long-Term Message From The VIX
The VIX measures the market’s expectation of future volatility. We can think of the S&P 500/VIX ratio as a way to track confidence in stocks and earnings relative to confidence the market will be volatile.
Are Financials Hinting At 2011/2016-Like Stock Market Rally?
Since making a low in late 2011 (point A), the XLF:SPY ratio has been trading in the slightly upward-sloping blue trend channel.
Tracking The Stock Market's Progress Versus Historical Cases
Selling pressure has not been strong enough to push and hold the S&P 500 below the 200-day moving average.
Updating January's Rare S&P 500 Setup
When the S&P 500 closed above the monthly Bollinger Band centerline at the end of January, it aligned the present day with favorable historical probabilities and also provided some distance from setups in the 1974, 2001, and 2008 bear markets.
S&P 500's Breakout Attempt
The S&P 500 is currently trying to hold above three relevant areas. The market appears to have successfully retested the 200-day earlier this month.
Market Hovering Near Important Guideposts
The longer a market can stay above the 200-day in the early stages of a rally attempt, the higher the odds we are dealing with a new trend rather than a countertrend move that will be followed by lower lows.
This Never Happened In The 1974, 2001, And 2008 Bear Markets
The S&P 500 closed above the monthly Bollinger Band centerline (a.k.a. center band) on January 31, 2019. The January print occurred after the S&P 500 closed below the centerline in December, but above the lower Bollinger Band.
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