Callum Thomas | TalkMarkets | Page 2
Founder of Topdown Charts
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Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts - a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven ...more

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Bond Bears Beware
The 10yr note drifted down toward 2.7% last week as the market expected a less aggressive Fed tightening process. This week, yields ticked back up to near 2.9%, still well below the May peak.
Chart Of The Week - Green Boom & Bust
Global “Renewables vs Fossils” equities have gone from boom to bust.
Growth Scare Spooks Small Caps
U.S. small-cap valuations are lower, but so too are earnings outlooks. While the SmallCap 600 looks cheap vs the S&P 500, absolute valuations are not all that inexpensive.
Eyeing Alpha In EM Ex-Asia Versus EM Asia
After issuing some idea changes, we revisit some intermediate-term ideas. Specifically, we remain bullish on UK equities and continue to favor European vs. US stocks. Another theme we find attractive is emerging markets outside of Asia vs. EM Asia.
Buybacks Breakout: Buyback Boost Back?
The S&P 500 Buy Back Index is one to watch for continued relative strength.
Chart Of The Week - Global Equity Market Regime Change
The bubble in growth/momentum/cyclicals is bursting.
Commodity Caution
It has been an incredible run for commodities in the last two years. After initiating a bullish outlook on the space in March 2020, it’s time to close this long idea.
Industrial Metals Under Attack, Agri Pulls Back
Commodities now struggle with the two-way narrative of extreme supply shortages but also waning demand due to downside global GDP growth risks.
Chart Of The Week - Banks Taking A Cautious Approach
The latest move in lending standards points to upside risk for credit spreads. This would be entirely consistent with Fed tightening, and the deteriorating macro outlook.
Defensive Value: The Safety Trade Of 2022
Defensive value sectors – Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Utilities – are doing ok so far in 2022.
US Dollar Vs Commodities: Correlation Confusion
The US Dollar’s massive move over the last six months has driven many macro trends. As the Fed continues down a path of fast hikes, expect more volatility in FX and hard assets.
Chart Of The Week - Global Equities Ex-Growth
Global equities risk further downside as the market goes ex-growth.
Stocks Suffer Severe Losses: Where Do We Go From Here?
2022 has been shaping up to be a tough year for the bulls, and the S&P 500 has had its worst start to a year since 1950 (price return). Given a further bearish turn in technicals and several other macro headwinds, we remain cautious on stocks
The Hunt For Cash Flow: Digging Into MLPs
Investors remain thirsty for yield even with government bond rates climbing around the world.
Chart Of The Week - Bond Yields And Inflation
A lot of people have gotten excited about the surge in annual inflation rates, but in my view, it’s arguably more interesting to look at the 10-year compound annual growth rate of CPI - particularly as it pertains to bond yields.
The Ups And Downs Of Inflation Expectations
Stocks and bonds are both down about 10% year-to-date. Risk parity has gone 'poof.' While April is historically a bullish month, there have been days of indiscriminate selling across asset classes recently.
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