BOB HOYE PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS NOVEMBER 3, 2017
Climate Update
The Sunspot number for October was 13.2, down sharply from September’s 43.6. There
were some 10 Spotless days, which drove the count for the year to 68 or 22 percent. This
compares to last year’s total of 32 Spotless days or 9 percent.
The count for previous years was 0 or 1, back to 2010 when it was 51 days. The cycle
minimum was set in 2009 at 260 Spotless days or 70 percent.
The Monthly high count for Sunspots in Solar Cycle 24 was 146 in February 2014. The
high for Solar Cycle 23 was 244 in July 2000.
Essentially, there were two methods that forecast this Solar Minimum. Solar physicists
Penn and Livingston in the 1990s based their conclusions on the Sun’s internal dynamics.
Others used the Solar Cycle of some 200 years. The current minimum is the lowest since
the Dalton Minimum of the early 1800s.
Solar minimums have been associated with climate cooling.
Climate and weather developments have been a fascinating subject; on their own. Mix in
unrelenting political ambition and it becomes the greatest promotion in history.
That a committee of bureaucrats can “manage” the Earth’s temperature assumes abilities
previously only assigned to gods.
It is essential to distinguish reality from speculation.
The main speculation is that modern industrial life causes, first, “Global Warming”. And
second it causes “Climate Change”. Both enable criticism of ordinary life that can only
be remedied by massive increases in taxation and regulation.
Reality refutes speculation.
That there is no link from CO2 atmospheric concentration to the significant changes in
climate is condemned as heresy. That change in the Earth’s temperature lead changes in
CO2 by some 500 to 800 years is ignored. Mainly because millions of years of history
show that temperature changes force changes in CO2.
In which case, there is no need for extraordinary increases in taxation and regulations.
The only reason AGW became dominant was because it is a theory that can be used to
transfer wealth and power to the state. Of course, this is the reason behind the dominance
of interventionist economics and central banking.
The record of the Earth’s surface temperature has been distorted to fit the climate models
that have been forecasting a significant rise. As in, over the past twenty years.
Measurements by satellite and balloon have been unaltered and both show a flat trend
that is now approaching 20 years, which chart has been continuously circulated. A chart
showing data-tampering follows. Satellite records of sea level and ice cover have not
been altered to fit the promotion.
Our October 13 Ice And Oceans study reviewed that the satellite sea level chart had been
flat-lining for almost three years. Against this, Northern ice cover has been increasing.
These, over great time intervals, have been related. Of interest, is that the NASA chart of
satellite sea level was last posted in August (chart follows). Naturally, the chart of
declining sea levels was popularly circulated. Of interest, is that the chart, which for
decades had been updated a couple of times each month, has not been updated since early
August.
As we have been noting, the main cooling force is the Solar Minimum, which allows
more cosmic rays through. This prompts greater cloud cover which both cools and
increases precipitation. The latter shows in the next chart.
Policy Driven Results
The first part of this piece reviews charts ice and snow cover charts that were not altered.
This part reviews how the record has been altered such that “forecasts” meet the theory.
First the first time in the Earth’s very long history there are two temperature records. The
real one as well as the one that satisfies government ambition, of which the most glaring
example is the elimination of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. More
recently political imperatives are met by lowering data postings from some 100 years ago
and fudging recent numbers higher than originally recorded.
Tony Heller is reliable in exposing the corruption.
