Blair Jensen | TalkMarkets | Page 3
President of Downside Hedge
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Blair Jensen is President of Downside Hedge which provides market commentary and hedging strategies for individual investors. His development of a stock market sentiment indicator based on the Twitter stream is changing the way investors and traders view ...more

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Damage Done
The risk in the market at this moment is from core market internals and not investor perception of risk or an event.
Now What?
SPX broke below minor support at 2450 last week. That level is now minor resistance. However, the large range between 2400 and 2500 will likely restrain any short term moves. A break of either level will point the next intermediate term direction.
Weakness Without Much Fear
Core market indicators are weakening, but risk isn’t rising substantially… yet. It’s time to start paying attention, but not panic.
Cracks In The Dam
Sentiment from Twitter for SPX is breaking its confirming uptrend line. It needs to hold right here or the short term top will materialize quickly.
Still Positive
Over the past week, my core market health indicators bounced around, but all still held positive readings.
Market Overbought
There are virtually no tweets calling for prices either above or below current price. This indicates that everyone is waiting to see what happens next, rather than projecting higher or lower prices.
Holding Steady
The market is rallying with healthy internals. Odds are we continue to move higher.
Next Target 2500
The S&P 500 Index (SPX​) held the level everyone was watching and tweeting at 2400. Then it cleared the Twitter resistance level at 2450. Now, traders are tweeting 2500 as the next stop.
Make Or Break Time
It’s make or break time for the market. Sentiment for the S&P 500 Index is sitting right on top of its confirming uptrend line. A clear break of this line would indicate that the bulls are retreating and the bears have gained control.
Ready To Launch
Over the past week, most of my core market health indicators rose dramatically. It appears that market internals are preparing for a move higher.
Trying To Break Higher
The current dip looks much more like a rotation before a rally than a long term top being made.
Almost Ready
Market health is improving, but investors are still favoring the “safe” stocks. This indicates continued marginal gains followed by choppiness.
Not Too Much Damage
We’ve had another week where the Nasdaq 100 was volatile and suffered a bit of damage, but sentiment for the S&P 500 Index is still holding up. As long as 7 day momentum stays above it’s current trend line the market should continue to advance.
Risk Vs. Health
We’ve got an interesting situation in the markets where perceptions of risk are extremely low, but my core indicators show an unhealthy market profile. This suggests that the unhealthy internals are most likely a result of rotation.
Still Bullish
Even with Friday’s ugly market action, investors and traders on Twitter remain bullish. The daily sentiment and momentum indicator for the S&P 500 Index had a positive print on Friday.
Looking Up
I suspect it will take a very good week for the market next week or a couple of weeks of sideways to up movement to get any of the negative categories in positive territory.
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