Bill Holter Blog | IMF: We Warned You | Talkmarkets
Financial Commentator and Former Stockbroker
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Bill Holter writes and is partnered with Jim Sinclair at the newly formed Holter/Sinclair collaboration. Prior, he wrote for Miles Franklin from 2012-15. Bill worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. He left Wall Street in late 2006 to avoid ... more

IMF: We Warned You

Date: Sunday, June 28, 2020 7:40 AM EDT

Bill Holter’s Commentary

While no fan of the IMF, they have given at least two dozen warnings over the last 3 years or so and will certainly say “we warned you”. Here is their latest warning.

The Tale Of A Global Debt Crisis Foretold
June 27, 2020

Anyone who believes that we are now well on the road to a global V-shaped economic recovery has not read the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) recent gloomy World Economic Outlook. More tellingly, they clearly have not considered how very likely it is that, if the IMF’s depressing world economic outlook is realized, we will have a series of major debt crises in systemically important countries such as Italy and Brazil.

On the basis of a longer-than-expected pandemic, the IMF now forecasts that the global economy will contract by almost 5 percent in 2020. That would mark the global economy’s worst year since the 1930s Great Depression. It would also represent a much worse economic performance than that in the 2008 Great Recession.

The IMF is particularly gloomy on the United States’ and Europe’s economic outlooks. For the United States, it now expects that GDP will decline by as much as 8 percent in 2020 before rebounding by 4.5 percent in 2021. It is even gloomier on the European economic outlook. It now expects that the Euro area economies will contract by more than 10 percent in 2020 before bouncing back by some 6 percent in 2021.


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