Bill Conerly | TalkMarkets | Page 2
Connecting The Dots Between The Economy... And Business!
Dr. Bill Conerly connects the dots between the economy and business decisions. As a consultant, he not only forecasts the economy but also helps business leaders understand how their challenges will change with the evolving economy. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Duke University and was ...more

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New Census Projections Show Tight Labor Market For Years
The U.S. Census Bureau issued new long-term population projections which are gloomy for employers. Lower birthrates and lower immigration contribute to the problem.
Mortgage, Treasury Bond Rates May Stay Higher, Longer
Those long-term rates are likely to drop when markets sense that the Fed is actually close to cutting the Fed Funds rates. That’s likely to come in the spring of 2024, but not in 2023. Long rates will edge down even before the Fed eases.
AI And The Economy: Better Marketing And Sales Good For Consumers But Not Statistics
The use of AI in marketing and sales will improve consumer satisfaction, with lower prices, but will not stimulate total consumer spending.
Strikes, The UAW And The Prospect For Unions Across The Economy
In some cases, unions have great power and succeed in winning more pay and benefits. In other cases, any success in the short-term will hurt workers in the long run.
AI And The Economy: Customer Service Jobs Will Be Cut, Quality Improved
Artificial Intelligence has had problems, but better AI, better management, and better training will enable better customer service at lower cost.
Long-Term Contracts Can Go Bad: WeWork Example
Long-term contracts are both useful and dangerous. Understanding the risk is necessary to get the full benefits of the deal.
Next Recession Not Likely To Be A Disaster
We should not expect any particular downturn to mirror a past recession. But the past does give us an idea of the likely range of possibilities.
AI And The Economy: Healthcare Will Have Huge Productivity Gains
The big, early gains will come from faster, easier clerical tasks that today consume too much of doctors’ and nurses’ time.
Long-Run Business Projections Easier Than They Seem
No business or economic forecast will be perfect. Recognizing that reality will lead to better business decisions. The anticipated profit must be great enough to cover the risk that the projection driving the decision may be off.
U.S. Manufacturers Reshoring, But It Will Take A Long Time
A company that can bring product assembly into the U.S., but still needs nuts and bolts from Chinese or Taiwanese suppliers, has not solved its supply chain problem.
AI And The Economy: Industries That Will Expand Employment
The greatest job gains from AI will be in discretionary products with low productivity growth. Price change and demand elasticity drive job changes.
Recession Forecast Still Correct For Late 2023 Or Early 2024
Could the delaying factors ease the economy into a soft landing? That looks more plausible than ever before, but forecasting “this time it’s different” usually turns out badly.
China’s Economy Looks Weak, Bad News For U.S. Exports
China’s economy should grow by 5.5% in 2023, according to the consensus of professional forecasters, but the consensus seems overly optimistic.
Which Companies And Industries Will/Won't Embrace AI - And Why
Implementation will be very slow in sectors with high stakes, litigiousness, high unionization, and high regulation. The opposite industries will move the fastest.
What Business Leaders Need To Learn From Harrison Ford And Other Older Workers
More people are working while in their 70s and 80s. That's helpful in this tight labor era. Three lessons on what motivates older people to work.
AI And The Economy: Overview Of Job Losses And Gains
The people of the world will benefit from AI, though some people will be hurt. Most of the benefits will accrue to consumers, based on economic theory and research.
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