It's hard for me to see Americans, in whom a deep streak of honesty and decency runs (and who hope that's what they're getting when they vote) selecting a President who is under investigation--for the second time-- by the FBI, which realizes that in order to retain the respect of Americans it must--in spite of official criticism and resistance--objectively pursue a justice in which Americans can believe.
How, if Clinton is elected, could her Presidency escape the plague of concerns that would leave millions of Americans with disturbing question marks of uncertainty...some which might never go away.All this would serve to weaken her standing personally, and that of her administration.Opposing forces, domestic and foreign, would always be looking to exploit perceived weakness.
I just read some commentary by Franklin Sanders, the Moneychanger, over in middle Tennessee.He quoted Franklin D. Roosevelt who was reported to have said that there are no accidents in politics, and if developments look like accidents, they were planned to look that way.
If the shadowy puppeteers, who make the actors dance in DC, have given up on the electability of a certain candidate, more uncertainty looms.The electorate has already cast millions of early ballots, so, the unprecedented withdrawal of one of the candidates would throw the election into a tizzy.How would a last minute candidate be named?And by whom?And who might try to intervene?And can charges of election rigging be effectively addressed?And would the election be postponed...or even be held?And, if not, how would the country be governed...and by whom? Certain uncertainties.
For the past couple of months, I've been reading pundits who say this is going to happen if Candidate X is elected, and that is going to happen if Candidate Y is elected.All that is problematical...regardless of who is elected President simply because Presidents aren't always effective in getting support for their agendas, and they can be thwarted by what Congress, the puppeteers... and voters... want.
One thing is clear to me--regardless of whether a male or female President takes residency in the White House.The certain thing and the ruling thing will be a prolonged state of uncertainty.
Uncertainty rules the major political parties, the Presidency, the Senate, and the House.There will be shake-ups and fall-out as those players whose gamble put them on the political sidelines are replaced by the winners.
The economy will continue to suffer the longer uncertainty reigns.So will foreign relations, the Fed, and a stressed US society among other things.Over the past decade the Fed, with all the confidence of central planners, have never failed to do what it sees as best for banking.But, the Fed has lost its groove.It dithers and dallies.It advances and retreats. The Fed stands firm and quivers.Its reps talk out of both sides of the Fed's forked mouth.It uses uncertainty to preserve its power over the global economy.Will it raise rates or not?
And do stealthily rising rates indicate global faith...or fear?
The Fed seems to want to do more of what it does best...and that's to inflate.But, with a strong dollar and T-bills flying across oceans to nest at the Treasury, who knows if the Fed can control inflation?Or how ineffective and how disruptive more money printing might be.It will be difficult to know who stands for what, and what to expect--other than a flock of black swans.Inflation in the US could easily take the course it has taken in Venezuela, where inflation is getting to the point where parties engaged in commerce don't bother to count currency.They weigh it!
And I can't see how, in the long run's uncertainty, any paper currency will grow in favor and value over gold and silver.The Fed's long struggle to make gold and silver look less desirable/valuable than paper is testimony to the fact that precious metal is still the standard by which fiat currencies are judged.
Money printing makes every fiat (paper) dollar look bogus.It's simultaneously inflationary and suicidally value-destructive while it masquerades as growth.The IOUs issued as Treasury Notes are coming home to roost because the foreigners who bought US debt look at US debt that is minimally closing in on $20 Trillion.They conclude that prospects are dim of ever getting repaid in dollars of value, so, they are cashing in their chips before the dollar is devalued.Will the US formally devalue the dollar?Who knows, but devaluation is the global trend, with every nation wanting its currency to be weaker than all others.All this opens Pandora's box, rendering uncertain the value of derivatives, along with contracts and other instruments denominated in dollars.
The Democratic Party is identified with the Status Quo desired by monied interests and militarism.But, even if the candidate of the Status Quo wins, there is no guarantee that the Status Quo will hold or can hold.Change is inevitable.Everyone knows it...and denies it.It's just that those on the Status Quo side want less change than they think Donald Trump might bring to DC.But, what if Trump doesn't produce the anticipated earthquakes?What if he finds his hands tied by embittered politics and politicians?There's no guarantee that he, if sworn in as President next year, can or will shake things up as much as feared by some and as anticipated by others.Uncertainty begets uncertainty.
Nobody knows the particulars yet to come.Analysts can say that based on what the candidates have said or done in the past, or what they have promised in the present campaign, they will tilt the country in one direction or another.But, trends don't tell the whole story, and the past can give birth to a future that bears no family resemblance.
Trying to guess political specifics is...guesswork...50-50 coin flipping.It might be helpful.Or not.Uncertainty has had DC on tenterhooks, and both Wall Street and Main Street on hold week after week as the negative revelations pile up on both candidates.
The candidate that's elected will be seen as a flawed President--a President so discredited by a nasty, vulgar campaign that his or her every intention will be subjected to uncertainty by vicious analysis and paralyzing debate.Political and social unity may be hard to come by.In many ways, the US is a Humpty-Dumpty.Hillary might find it hard to cement the cracks.Donald might find it tough sledding to restore US pride, guts, glory, and prosperity.
In such uncertainty war may be seen as the unifier of last resort.But, before we strike up the band and march off to Sousa's martial tunes, we'd better realize that new wars won't be fought "over there" with old rules and old weapons.Britain's fire-bombing of Dresden in retaliation for Hitler's buzz-bombs on London...and our fire-bombing of Tokyo changed all that...even before Hiroshima and Nagasaki... and Terrorism.New wars will be hard to contain and more civilians than military could go up in smoke, never knowing what hit them.
In such a rancorous climate, enmity and uncertainty will produce more indecision and more indirection.I see the election resolving little--and probably increasing--uncertainty. So, my thought is that everyone--individuals, groups, and institutions need to ask, "What will another year or more of uncertainty do to my plans, to my dreams, to my business, to my assets, to my debts, to my investments, to my retirement, to my mental and physical health, to my life?""How can I benefit from uncertainty?" "How can I make uncertainty my ally?"
Sailors know how to use every change in wind direction to their advantage, and we're enter a period when those who sail the financial seas can bend uncertainty to their success.Your mind is a creative instrument.Put it to work.Ask your mind for ideas that turn disadvantage 180 degrees.Be open and receptive to seeing clear relationships between causes and the effects you want.Be ready to wake in the middle of the night to record the whisperings of your mind.Whose mind has your welfare more in mind than your mind?
Those who come up with the best answers to uncertainty will be the biggest winners to emerge from this Presidential election.