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Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E The Trade Conflict Is Stifling Global Manufacturing
Around the world manufacturing is either slowing or contracting, adding to existing worries about Europe's debt crisis and the economic slowdown in Asia.
E The Global Economy Is Slowing; The Chill From The US Trade War Makes It Worse
Based on first-quarter data only, growth in Japan was at a 0.9% annual rate, the UK’s growth rate was 1.8%, and Germany’s was 0.7%. Canada’s economy grew by 1.3% y/y as of the first quarter.
E Canada's Wage Growth In July
In a nutshell, there has been a flattening out of total employment over the past three months.
E Accesssing Fiscal Policy Measures
In the next economic crisis some OECD countries will have trouble using fiscal policy because of their high debt-to- GDP ratios.
E US Consumer Spending Strong In Q2
US consumer spending was impressively strong in the second quarter, but business investment was quite weak.
E Central Banks Should Forget About The 2% Inflation Target
If, with nearly fully employed economies in all cases, inflation remains below 2%, then so be it.
E Decent Job Numbers Don't Mean No Further Rate Cuts
The US employment numbers In July were okay, but they do not preclude The Fed from following with another interest rate reduction this year.
E The Bank Of Canada Is Being Extremely Cautious In Its Latest Policy Statement; Waiting For External Factors To Unfold
At its July 10th policy meeting, the Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾%. The central bank also updated its forecast for Canada’s real GDP growth to 1.3% this year, 1.9% next year and 2% in 2021.
E Canadian And US Economic Trajectories-Convergence Or Divergence?
Canada’s economy is often treated as an appendage of the much larger US economy.
E America’s Goldilocks Jobs Market Continues To Defy The Pessimistic View Of Slower Growth Ahead
Forget about a Fed interest rate cut this month.
E Canada’s Job Market Is Booming; Economy Moving Away From Recent Rough Patch?
Canada’s robust job market continues to outperform many economic projections, recording its lowest unemployment rate on record in May.
E Canada’s Economy Seems To Be On A Modest Recovery Path
The Canadian economy was recently been trapped in a very weak phase of economic growth.
E Canada’s Current Account Deficit Widened In Q1 - Bad News For C$
Canada’s current account (trade) deficit rose to $17.3 billion in the first quarter, or $69.4 billion when the figures are annualized.
E Booming Economy, Low Interest Rates Have Contributed To Escalation In US Household Debt
The American economy has been generating relatively strong growth in a near fully employed environment. Bank credit expansion has also been quite solid and has supported strong consumer spending.
E Trump’s Tariffs Have Not Reduced The Overall US Trade Deficit
As long as the US Administration pursues large budget deficits in its fully employed economy, the trade will simply shift away from China to America’s other trading partners.
E Housing Weakness Is A Sign Of Approaching Slowdown In US Economy
U.S. new home sales declined 6.9% in April to 673,000 units annualized following a robust 723,000 sales level in March.
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