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Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E US Nonfarm Payrolls Surged In January, Unemployment Continues At A 50 Year Low
US firms added a robust 225,000 new payroll jobs in January even though the economy faces threats from China’s viral outbreak, trade war problems, and struggles at Boeing.
E The Coronavirus Will Weaken The Global Economy - But For How Long?
The consensus of economists in terms of inputting this external shock into the global economic outlook is lagging a bit behind the actual spread of the virus.
E The Global Economic Outlook Was Improving Before The Virus Hit – Now We Are Not Sure?
Expectations relating to a global economic turnaround this year were improving prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus.
E Canadian Economy Cooled In 2019, Even Though Labor Market Stayed Strong
The Canadian economy slowed last year to an estimated 1.6% pace, though the job market performed very strongly. Canada’s economy expanded at an unusually fast 3.5% annual rate in the second quarter, though the growth slowed to only 1.3% in Q3.
E Negative Rates And Central Banks
With forecasts of a slower global economy, central banks around the world are once again contemplating that they might need a much easier monetary policy.
E The Natural Rate Of Interest Is An Esoteric Concept That The Fed Pays Attention To
The central banks in the advanced countries are all facing a similar quandary. Policy interest rates have been declining over the past 20 years, and in some cases, are barely above zero.
E Canada’s Economy Created 35,000 Jobs In December But Monthly Jobs Estimates Are Erratic
The December employment recovery led to a reduction in the unemployment rate to 5.6% from 5.9% in the previous month.
E Canadian Housing Starts Contracted In 2019, Though Construction In The Large Cities Is Booming
Canadian housing starts surprised pundits by dropping below the 200,000 annual unit level in December.
E Serious Problems For Germany’s Manufacturing Sector, Auto Production Restructures In The Direction Of Electric Cars
Germany has had a terrible manufacturing performance in all of 2019.
E With A Risky Brexit Coming, Johnson Inherited A Full Employment Economy
As was the case in the US, even in the face of somewhat slow economic growth., Britain’s job market strengthened last year, and the unemployment rate dropped to a four-decade low of under 4%.
E The Canadian Economy Cooled In 2019, Even Though The Labour Market Stayed Quite Strong
The Canadian economy slowed last year to an estimated 1.6% pace, though the job market performed very strongly.
E Why Have US Import Prices From China Been Relatively Stable?
The steep U.S. tariffs on most Chinese goods have had a puzzling lack of influence on import prices, raising questions about who exactly is paying the lion’s share of higher duties.
E The US Still Imposes Heavy Tariffs On Chinese Imports
Even though President Trump has called the trade deal “transformative,” this view is a complete exaggeration of reality. In fact, the agreement still leaves in place most of the tariffs Trump has imposed on Chinese goods since 2018.
E The December US Jobs Report Was Weaker Than Expected, But The Jobs Market Still Remains Very Tight
There are still no convincing signs of a new recession on the horizon.
E The Fed Seems Ok With Inflation Running Slightly Higher Than 2.5%
Worries about escalating inflation in the near term have virtually vanished from the financial markets as well as from the Federal Reserve’s recent policy discussions.
E Global Economic Growth Will Be Very Slow In 2020 And 2021 Even Assuming A Goldilocks Outlook
The World Bank estimates that global growth came in at only 2.4% in 2019 and projects that the world economy will only expand only slightly faster this year and in 2021.
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