Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E Despite Strong Gains In April, US Job Growth Is Bound To Slow Later This Year And In 2020
The April jobs report was positive for the equity markets in the sense that it reinforced the idea that the economy doesn’t need the Fed to ride to its rescue with interest rate cuts.
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E The US Goldilocks Scenario Was Supported By Strong GDP Growth In The First Quarter
Worries about a slowing US economic expansion this year seem a bit premature considering that real GDP rose at a 3.2% annual rate in the first quarter.
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E The World Economy Should Regain Some Momentum Later This Year
The global economy began to slow last year, and the best-case scenario is for a continuation of generally moderate growth into 2020.
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E Is The Goldilocks Economic And Financial Boom Almost Over?
The current bull market in equities is on the verge of breaking records for its longevity.
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E Sanctions Against Iran May Not Generate Regime Change
While it seems highly unlikely that Iran will change its policies or even change its regime because of Trump’s investment and trade sanctions, nonetheless the oil-dependent Iranian economy has been badly affected by the US sanctions.
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E Japan's Significant Structural Problems
Japan plans to increase its consumption tax in October. A previous tax increase pushed the economy into recession.
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US Growth And The Deceleration In Inflation
21 days ago

Nice column. Your point about inflation and nominal GDP in particular, tells a different story than the one quarter bounce in real GDP

US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit
1 month ago

Gary,

it could be some retail demand fall off, but i fear that it reflects more the economic pessimism that is creeping in because of the expected ec slowdown and the related fact that the recovery is sounding a bit long in the tooth.

US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit
1 month ago

thanks Gary

It sounds almost counter-intuitive since interest rates are falling

The Bank Of Canada Introduces Ambiguity Into Rate Policy
2 months ago

A thoughtful and clear explanation of why the BoC is on hold

Is There A Disconnect Between The Stock Market And The Global Economy?
3 months ago

Gary

Every time I think that the markets should have fully discounted an issue-e.g. tariffs, rate changes--somehow the market still reacts.

Who really knows.

China’s Exports Have Recently Soared Because Of The Tariff War
5 months ago

Yep

Your comment is right on.

China is trying to diversify its own imports. Imports from Asian countries grew faster than imports from the US.

Trump’s Tariff War With China May Have Some Unexpected Consequences
6 months ago

I found your article to be very insightful. As an aside, I have also long thought that the division between what is manufacturing and what can be classified as services to be very blurry. All the best.

Canada Had A Jobs Rebound In June, But Short-Term Outlook Less Encouraging
9 months ago

thanks for your comment. where are you located?

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Arthur Donner Commented on US Growth And The Deceleration In Inflation:

Nice column. Your point about inflation and nominal GDP in particular, tells a different story than the one quarter bounce in real GDP

Arthur Donner Commented on US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit:

Gary,

it could be some retail demand fall off, but i fear that it reflects more the economic pessimism that is creeping in because of the expected ec slowdown and the related fact that the recovery is soun...

more
Arthur Donner Commented on US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit:

thanks Gary

It sounds almost counter-intuitive since interest rates are falling

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