Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E What Are The Chances For A New Global Recession?
There is an emerging chorus of many economists and investment experts who confidently think that a US and European, if not a global, recession, is in the cards.
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E The Global Economy Is Slowing, However A Global Recession Is Not Inevitable
The global economy’s synchronized slowdown is worsening, and this year global growth will fall to 3%, its lowest rate since the beginning of the decade.
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E When Experts Agree Trade Tensions Are Slowing Global Growth, You Better Pay Attention
The US-China trade dispute and its negative transmission via weaker global manufacturing and capital investment are an important catalyst behind increased investor uncertainty and slower international growth.
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E Canada's Job Creation Still Unusually Strong
Once again Canada’s erratic labor force survey surprised economists when it reported a substantial 81,000 employment increase in August.
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E Canada's Trade In Summer
Canada’s trade deficit widened in the summer.
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E China’s Trade Outlook Is Souring And Its Economy Is Weakening
There is considerable confusion around with respect to the impact the trade war is having on China’s actual trade situation.
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Comments

Latest Comments
US Growth And The Deceleration In Inflation
5 months ago

Nice column. Your point about inflation and nominal GDP in particular, tells a different story than the one quarter bounce in real GDP

US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit
6 months ago

Gary,

it could be some retail demand fall off, but i fear that it reflects more the economic pessimism that is creeping in because of the expected ec slowdown and the related fact that the recovery is sounding a bit long in the tooth.

US Banks Are Worried And Are Tightening Credit
6 months ago

thanks Gary

It sounds almost counter-intuitive since interest rates are falling

The Bank Of Canada Introduces Ambiguity Into Rate Policy
7 months ago

A thoughtful and clear explanation of why the BoC is on hold

Is There A Disconnect Between The Stock Market And The Global Economy?
8 months ago

Gary

Every time I think that the markets should have fully discounted an issue-e.g. tariffs, rate changes--somehow the market still reacts.

Who really knows.

China’s Exports Have Recently Soared Because Of The Tariff War
10 months ago

Yep

Your comment is right on.

China is trying to diversify its own imports. Imports from Asian countries grew faster than imports from the US.

Trump’s Tariff War With China May Have Some Unexpected Consequences
11 months ago

I found your article to be very insightful. As an aside, I have also long thought that the division between what is manufacturing and what can be classified as services to be very blurry. All the best.

Canada Had A Jobs Rebound In June, But Short-Term Outlook Less Encouraging
1 year ago

thanks for your comment. where are you located?

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