I have an MBA and over 25 years of experience in real estate development, stocks, bonds, finance, and forex markets.
My investment approach is very simple. I find countries with the highest and strongest macro-fiscal flows and low levels of private debt and invest in them ... more
I have an MBA and over 25 years of experience in real estate development, stocks, bonds, finance, and forex markets.
My investment approach is very simple. I find countries with the highest and strongest macro-fiscal flows and low levels of private debt and invest in them using country ETFs and contract for difference (CFDs).
I use functional finance and sectoral flow analysis of the national accounts of the nations I invest in. This is after the work of Professors Wynne Godley, Micheal Hudson, Steve Keen, and William Mitchell. Roger Malcolm Mitchell, Warren Mosler, Robert P Balan, and many others.
One can analyze a country in seconds with four numbers as a % of GDP and these are G P X C where:
G] Federal spending.
[P] Non-Federal Spending.
[X] Net Exports
[C] Credit
One can then derive a set of accounting identities that are correct by definition.
GDP = G + P + X
Aggregate Demand = G + P + X + C or GDP + Credit.
GDP = GDI
G and X are regularly reported in official national account statistics and one can work out P as follows:
P = G + X
Asset prices rise best where the macro-fiscal flows are strongest and where the private sector balance is highest.
The 20-year land/credit cycle identified by Fred Harrison and Phillip Anderson is also a key investment framework that I take into account.
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| ABQKX | Alliancebernstein Bond Fd Alliancebernstein Int |
| ACMTX | Alliancebernstein Multi-Asset Inflation Strategy |
| ARGT | Global X MSCI Argentina ETF |
| AUSE | Wisdomtree Trust |
| BRZU | Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 3X ETF |
| BXUB | Barclays Bank PLC |
| BXUC | Barclays Bank PLC |
| BZF | WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund |
| BZQ | ProShares Trust |
| CH | Aberdeen Chile Fund, Inc. |
| CRF | Cornerstone Total Return Fund |
| CRZBF | COMMERZBANK AG BEARE |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc. |
| DB | Deutsche Bank AG |
| DBAU | Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Aust Hdgd Eq |
| DBBR | Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Brazil Hedged Equity ETF |
| DDM | ProShares Ultra Dow30 |
| DDPRB | E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont) |
| DEE | PowerShares DB Commodity Double Shrt ETN |
| DEUS | Deutsche X-trackers Russell 1000 CmpsFtr |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average |
| DOG | ProShares Short Dow30 |
| DRN | Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF |
| DXD | ProShares UltraShort Dow30 |
| ECH | iShares MSCI Chile Investable Market Index Fund |
| EEH | ELEMENTS Linked to the SPECTRUM Large CAP U.S. Sector Momentum Index |
| EEQ | Enbridge Energy Management L.L.C. |
| ENZL | iShares Trust |
| EPHE | iShares MSCI Philippines |
| EPS | WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund |
| EPU | iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund |
| EQAL | PowerShares Russell 1000 Equal Wght ETF |
| EQL | ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF |
| ERUS | iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF |
| EUSA | iShares Inc |
| EWA | iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund |
| EWAS | iShares Trust |
| EWC | iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund |
| EWD | iShares MSCI Sweden Index Fund |
| EWK | iShares MSCI Belgium Investable Market Index Fund |
| EWM | iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund |
| EWN | iShares MSCI Netherlands Investable Market Index Fund |
| EWO | iShares MSCI Austria Investable Market Index Fund |
| EWQ | iShares MSCI France Index Fund |
| EWS | iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund |
| EWT | iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund |
| EWZ | iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund |
| EZA | iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund |
| FAMRX | Fidelity Asset Manager 85% |
| FAUS | FstTr ET AlDx2 Shs First Trust Australia AlphaDEX Fund |
| FAZ | Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares |
| FBZ | First Trust Exchange-Traded AlphaDEX Fund 2 |
| FEX | First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund |
| FLFR | Franklin FTSE France ETF |
| FSWA | FIRST SOUND BK (WA) |
| FWDD | Madrona Domestic |
| FXA | CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust |
| GREK | Global X MSCI Greece |
| GXG | Global X/InterBolsa FTSE Colombia 20 ETF |
| HAUD | iShares Currency Hedged MSCI AUS |
| HPWR | HEALTH POWER INC |
| HUSV | First Trust Hrzn MgdVolatil Domestic ETF |
| IAF | Aberdeen Australia Equity Fund, Inc. |
| IDX | Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF |
| IEV | iShares Europe |
| IF | Aberdeen Indonesia Fund, Inc. |
| INDL | Direxion Daily India Bull 3X Shares |
| IVV | iShares S&P 500 Index Fund |
| IWB | iShares Russell 1000 Index Fund |
| IWD | iShares Russell 1000 Value Index Fund |
| IWL | iShares Trust |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund |
| JHML | JHancock Multifactor Large Cap ETF |
| JKD | iShares Morningstar Large Core Index Fund |
| KROO | Indexiq ETF Trust |
| LNAFF | LONRHO AFRICA PLC OR |
| LPJRX | BlackRock Funds III |
| MSFTV | Microsoft Corp |
| NDAC | NEW DRAGON ASIA CP A |
| NORW | GLOBAL X NORWAY ETF |
| OTPIX | Nasdaq-100 Profund Investor Class |
| PGAL | Global X FTSE Portugal 20 ETF |
| PPLC | PortfolioPlus S&P 500 ETF |
| PSQ | ProShares Short QQQ |
| QAT | iShares MSCI Qatar Capped ETF |
| QAUS | SPDR MSCI Australia StrategicFactorsETF |
| QID | ProShares UltraShort QQQ |
| QLD | ProShares Ultra QQQ |
| QQEW | First Trust NASDAQ |
| QQQ | PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 |
| QQQE | Direxion Trust |
| QQXT | First Trust NASDAQ - 100 Ex |
| RAHTX | American Fds 2045 Target Date Retirement Fd Cl R |
| RBL | SPDR S&P Russia ETF |
| REM | iShares FTSE NAREIT Mortgage REITs Index Fund |
| REZ | iShares FTSE NAREIT Residential Index Fund |
| ROOF | General Roofing Systems Inc |
| RSP | Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF |
| RSX | MARKET VECTORS RUS ETF |
| RUSL | Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3x Shares |
| RUSS | Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3x Shares |
| RYARX | Rydex Series Fds Inverse S&P 500 Strategy Fund |
| SBUS | ETFS Diversified-Factor US Large Cap |
| SCHX | SCHWAB US LARGE CAP ETF |
| SDOW | ProShares Indices |
| SDS | ProShares UltraShort S&P500 |
| SH | ProShares Short S&P500 |
| SHEEF | SHANE RES CL A |
| SPDN | Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF |
| SPLG | SPDR Portfolio Large Cap ETF |
| SPLX | UBS ETRACS M Reset 2xLvg S&P 500 TR ETN |
| SPUU | Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X ETF |
| SPXE | ProShares S&P 500 ex-Energy |
| SPXL | Direxion Daily S&P500 Bull 3X ETF |
| SPXN | ProShares S&P 500 ex-Financials |
| SPXS | Direxion Daily S&P500 Bear 3X ETF |
| SPXT | ProShares S&P 500 ex-Technology |
| SPXU | ProShares Trust |
| SPXV | ProShares S&P 500 ex-Health Care |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 |
| SPYB | SPDR S&P 500 Buyback ETF |
| SPYD | SPDR S&P 500 High Dividend ETF |
| SPYG | SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF |
| SPYV | SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF |
| SQQQ | ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ |
| SSO | ProShares Ultra S&P500 |
| SYE | SPDR MFS Systematic Core Equity ETF |
| THD | iShares MSCI Thailand Investable Market Index Fund |
| TQQQ | ProShares UltraPro QQQ |
| UAE | iShares MSCI UAE Capped ETF |
| UBR | ProShares Trust |
| UDN | PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund |
| UDOW | ProShares Indices |
| UDPIX | Ultra Dow 30 Profund Investor Class |
| UPRO | ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF |
| USA | Liberty All-Star Equity Fund |
| USDU | WisdomTree Bloomberg USD Bullish ETF Fund |
| USSD | WisdomTree Strong Dollar US Equity ETF |
| VFINX | Vanguard Index Trust 500 Index Fund |
| VKIVGX | Van Kampen Focus Portfolios |
| VONE | V-One Corporation |
| VOO | VANGUARD FIVE HUNDRED INDEX |
| VRSI | VIRAL RESPONSE SYS I |
| VV | Vanguard Large-Cap ETF |
| XHB | SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF |
| ZF | The Zweig Fund Inc. |
| Private Investor | |
| Family Office | |
| 2003 - Present (17 years 10 months) |
| University of Southern Queensland | |
| Master of Business Administration (M.B.A.) | |
| 1995 / 1997 | |
| Business, Management, Marketing und verbundene unterstützende Dienste |
| Edith Cowan University | |
| Graduate Diploma of Business in Management Studies | |
| 1991 / 1995 | |
| Management Studies |
| Curtin University of Technology | |
| Bachelor of Arts (B.A.) | |
| 1987 / 1990 | |
| Urban & Regional Studies (Town Planning) Dates attended or expected graduation Activities and Societies: Treasurer of the Town Planning Students Association. |
| Contributor | |
| Alan Longbon | |
| Seeking Alpha |
Latest Comments
What The Fed Did Do At Its Last Meeting On April 30 - May 1, 2019
Thanks Robert.
What The Fed Did Do At Its Last Meeting On April 30 - May 1, 2019
Hello,
The pre-meeting report is here: seekingalpha.com/.../4254418-fed-meeting-april-30-may-1-2019-impact-rate-rise
Equity Counter-Trend Rally In Place; Yields Bottoming Out; DXY Resumes The Uptrend
Yes on holiday but back now.
Equity Counter-Trend Rally In Place; Yields Bottoming Out; DXY Resumes The Uptrend
Good one Robert.
Debt, Deficits, And False Stories
Right on the money.
Monetary Policy Takes Center Stage: MMT, QE Or Public Banks?
Hello Ellen,
Great to find you writing here. This is a quote that I regularly post in reply to scaremongering about the national debt.
"Under current institutional arrangements, governments around the world voluntarily issue debt into the private bond markets to MATCH $-for-$ their net spending flows in each period. A sovereign government within a fiat currency system does not have to issue any debt and could run continuous fiscal deficits (that is, forever) with a zero public debt."
(Source: Professor William Mitchell, 2014) http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=29214
Issuing "debt" is totally and utterly not necessary.
If the Federal Government made two key changes there would be no need for treasury issuance and these are:
1. Change the law so that Federal deficit spending was not matched with treasury issuance.
2. Set a support rate on the Federal Fund Rate instead of a target rate so that the buying and selling of treasuries are not used to maintain the target rate.
The 'national debt' would roll off in a few months as treasuries were converted to dollars again. From savings account to checking account just like your savings at a commercial bank.
What It Would Have Meant If The Fed Had Raised In March
You can view more of my work here seekingalpha.com/.../alan-longbon#regular_articles
Seasonal Trading Patterns For The World's Biggest Economies
I agree with you and there are about 3 authors there that I follow and the rest I do not. I will be writing here more now that I have discovered it. Here my articles get a lot more page views that weeks at SA.
Seasonal Trading Patterns For The World's Biggest Economies
Thank you for reading and commenting. I disagree. It is an example of applied sectoral flow analysis where flows of income cause a change in the stock of assets. It uses national accounting to track the flows at the macro level, a thing that on one does nut that was discovered by Professor Wynne Godley and the Post Keynesian school of economics. It has been out of favour for the last 50 years or so as it runs counter to current neoliberal economic thinking. It is taught though at the Levy Institute Bard College.
Seasonal Trading Patterns For The World's Biggest Economies
seekingalpha.com/.../alan-longbon#regular_articles