MBA

I have an MBA and over 25 years of experience in real estate development, stocks, bonds, finance, and forex markets.

My investment approach is very simple. I find countries with the highest and strongest macro-fiscal flows and low levels of private debt and invest in them ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

US Private Domestic Sector Books A $208B Surplus In May 2019
The US budget deficit is a net add to private domestic sector income. Private credit growth resumed in May and added over $25 billion to the money supply.
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E What The Fed Did Do At Its Last Meeting On April 30 - May 1, 2019
This article provides an impact assessment of the FOMC meeting and focuses on the change to the interest rate on excess reserves that was lowered and has macro impacts.
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E What It Would Have Meant If The Fed Had Raised In March
An impact assessment of the March 19-20 FOMC meeting, and the possibility of a rate rise later this year.
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E Seasonal Trading Patterns For The World's Biggest Economies
Most major stock exchanges have a seasonal pattern that one can trade based on the macro flow of funds from the national government and current account.
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France: Stock Market Trade Opportunity From Annual Fiscal Flows
The purpose of this article is to assess the macro-fiscal flows for France and determine what effect these flows will have on the stock market and the economy.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Equity Counter-Trend Rally In Place; Yields Bottoming Out; DXY Resumes The Uptrend
4 months ago

Yes on holiday but back now.

In this article: QQQ, GLD, SLV, TLT, UUP, SPX, CRAK, DRIP
Debt, Deficits, And False Stories
4 months ago

Right on the money.

In this article: TLT
Monetary Policy Takes Center Stage: MMT, QE Or Public Banks?
5 months ago

Hello Ellen,

Great to find you writing here. This is a quote that I regularly post in reply to scaremongering about the national debt.

"Under current institutional arrangements, governments around the world voluntarily issue debt into the private bond markets to MATCH $-for-$ their net spending flows in each period. A sovereign government within a fiat currency system does not have to issue any debt and could run continuous fiscal deficits (that is, forever) with a zero public debt."

(Source: Professor William Mitchell, 2014) http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=29214

Issuing "debt" is totally and utterly not necessary.

If the Federal Government made two key changes there would be no need for treasury issuance and these are:

1. Change the law so that Federal deficit spending was not matched with treasury issuance.

2. Set a support rate on the Federal Fund Rate instead of a target rate so that the buying and selling of treasuries are not used to maintain the target rate.

The 'national debt' would roll off in a few months as treasuries were converted to dollars again. From savings account to checking account just like your savings at a commercial bank.

Seasonal Trading Patterns For The World's Biggest Economies
5 months ago

I agree with you and there are about 3 authors there that I follow and the rest I do not. I will be writing here more now that I have discovered it. Here my articles get a lot more page views that weeks at SA.

In this article: S
Seasonal Trading Patterns For The World's Biggest Economies
5 months ago

Thank you for reading and commenting. I disagree. It is an example of applied sectoral flow analysis where flows of income cause a change in the stock of assets. It uses national accounting to track the flows at the macro level, a thing that on one does nut that was discovered by Professor Wynne Godley and the Post Keynesian school of economics. It has been out of favour for the last 50 years or so as it runs counter to current neoliberal economic thinking. It is taught though at the Levy Institute Bard College.

In this article: S
1 to 10 of 14 comments
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

ABQKX Alliancebernstein Bond Fd Alliancebernstein Int
ACMTX Alliancebernstein Multi-Asset Inflation Strategy
ARGT Global X MSCI Argentina ETF
AUSE Wisdomtree Trust
BRZU Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 3X ETF
BXUB Barclays Bank PLC
BXUC Barclays Bank PLC
BZF WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real Fund
BZQ ProShares Trust
CH Aberdeen Chile Fund, Inc.
CRF Cornerstone Total Return Fund
CRZBF COMMERZBANK AG BEARE
DAL Delta Air Lines Inc.
DB Deutsche Bank AG
DBAU Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Aust Hdgd Eq
DBBR Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Brazil Hedged Equity ETF
DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30
DDPRB E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (DuPont)
DEE PowerShares DB Commodity Double Shrt ETN
DEUS Deutsche X-trackers Russell 1000 CmpsFtr
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
DOG ProShares Short Dow30
DRN Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF
DXD ProShares UltraShort Dow30
ECH iShares MSCI Chile Investable Market Index Fund
EEH ELEMENTS Linked to the SPECTRUM Large CAP U.S. Sector Momentum Index
EEQ Enbridge Energy Management L.L.C.
ENZL iShares Trust
EPHE iShares MSCI Philippines
EPS WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund
EPU iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund
EQAL PowerShares Russell 1000 Equal Wght ETF
EQL ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF
ERUS iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF
EUSA iShares Inc
EWA iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund
EWAS iShares Trust
EWC iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund
EWD iShares MSCI Sweden Index Fund
EWK iShares MSCI Belgium Investable Market Index Fund
EWM iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund
EWN iShares MSCI Netherlands Investable Market Index Fund
EWO iShares MSCI Austria Investable Market Index Fund
EWQ iShares MSCI France Index Fund
EWS iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund
EWT iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund
EWZ iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund
EZA iShares MSCI South Africa Index Fund
FAMRX Fidelity Asset Manager 85%
FAUS FstTr ET AlDx2 Shs First Trust Australia AlphaDEX Fund
FAZ Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares
FBZ First Trust Exchange-Traded AlphaDEX Fund 2
FEX First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund
FLFR Franklin FTSE France ETF
FSWA FIRST SOUND BK (WA)
FWDD Madrona Domestic
FXA CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust
GREK Global X MSCI Greece
GXG Global X/InterBolsa FTSE Colombia 20 ETF
HAUD iShares Currency Hedged MSCI AUS
HPWR HEALTH POWER INC
HUSV First Trust Hrzn MgdVolatil Domestic ETF
IAF Aberdeen Australia Equity Fund, Inc.
IDX Market Vectors Indonesia Index ETF
IEV iShares Europe
IF Aberdeen Indonesia Fund, Inc.
INDL Direxion Daily India Bull 3X Shares
IVV iShares S&P 500 Index Fund
IWB iShares Russell 1000 Index Fund
IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value Index Fund
IWL iShares Trust
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
JHML JHancock Multifactor Large Cap ETF
JKD iShares Morningstar Large Core Index Fund
KROO Indexiq ETF Trust
LNAFF LONRHO AFRICA PLC OR
LPJRX BlackRock Funds III
MSFTV Microsoft Corp
NDAC NEW DRAGON ASIA CP A
NORW GLOBAL X NORWAY ETF
OTPIX Nasdaq-100 Profund Investor Class
PGAL Global X FTSE Portugal 20 ETF
PPLC PortfolioPlus S&P 500 ETF
PSQ ProShares Short QQQ
QAT iShares MSCI Qatar Capped ETF
QAUS SPDR MSCI Australia StrategicFactorsETF
QID ProShares UltraShort QQQ
QLD ProShares Ultra QQQ
QQEW First Trust NASDAQ
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
QQQE Direxion Trust
QQXT First Trust NASDAQ - 100 Ex
RAHTX American Fds 2045 Target Date Retirement Fd Cl R
RBL SPDR S&P Russia ETF
REM iShares FTSE NAREIT Mortgage REITs Index Fund
REZ iShares FTSE NAREIT Residential Index Fund
ROOF General Roofing Systems Inc
RSP Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF
RSX MARKET VECTORS RUS ETF
RUSL Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3x Shares
RUSS Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3x Shares
RYARX Rydex Series Fds Inverse S&P 500 Strategy Fund
SBUS ETFS Diversified-Factor US Large Cap
SCHX SCHWAB US LARGE CAP ETF
SDOW ProShares Indices
SDS ProShares UltraShort S&P500
SH ProShares Short S&P500
SHEEF SHANE RES CL A
SPDN Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF
SPLG SPDR Portfolio Large Cap ETF
SPLX UBS ETRACS M Reset 2xLvg S&P 500 TR ETN
SPUU Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X ETF
SPXE ProShares S&P 500 ex-Energy
SPXL Direxion Daily S&P500 Bull 3X ETF
SPXN ProShares S&P 500 ex-Financials
SPXS Direxion Daily S&P500 Bear 3X ETF
SPXT ProShares S&P 500 ex-Technology
SPXU ProShares Trust
SPXV ProShares S&P 500 ex-Health Care
SPY SPDR S&P 500
SPYB SPDR S&P 500 Buyback ETF
SPYD SPDR S&P 500 High Dividend ETF
SPYG SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF
SPYV SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF
SQQQ ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500
SYE SPDR MFS Systematic Core Equity ETF
THD iShares MSCI Thailand Investable Market Index Fund
TQQQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ
UAE iShares MSCI UAE Capped ETF
UBR ProShares Trust
UDN PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
UDOW ProShares Indices
UDPIX Ultra Dow 30 Profund Investor Class
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF
USA Liberty All-Star Equity Fund
USDU WisdomTree Bloomberg USD Bullish ETF Fund
USSD WisdomTree Strong Dollar US Equity ETF
VFINX Vanguard Index Trust 500 Index Fund
VKIVGX Van Kampen Focus Portfolios
VONE V-One Corporation
VOO VANGUARD FIVE HUNDRED INDEX
VRSI VIRAL RESPONSE SYS I
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF
XHB SPDR S&P HMBLDRS IDX FND
ZF The Zweig Fund Inc.
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PERSONAL BLOG

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Work Experience

Private Investor
Family Office
2003 - Present (16 years 10 months)

Education

University of Southern Queensland
Master of Business Administration (M.B.A.)
1995 / 1997
Business, Management, Marketing und verbundene unterstützende Dienste
Edith Cowan University
Graduate Diploma of Business in Management Studies
1991 / 1995
Management Studies
Curtin University of Technology
Bachelor of Arts (B.A.)
1987 / 1990
Urban & Regional Studies (Town Planning) Dates attended or expected graduation Activities and Societies: Treasurer of the Town Planning Students Association.

Publications

Contributor
Alan Longbon
Seeking Alpha