Adem Tumerkan | TalkMarkets | Page 2
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Contributor's Links: Speculators Anonymous
My name is Adem Tumerkan and I’m the analyst and editor at Speculators Anonymous. I’m a macro-speculator and a former market analyst that got tired of the mainstream financial industry (full details below). I’m LONG volatility, optionality, holistic thinking, cycles, and history — I’m SHORT ...more

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‘Credit-Crunched’: U.S. And Euro Banks Keep Tightening Credit Amid Weaker Loan Demand
Banks in the U.S. and Eurozone continue to tighten credit at sharp rates across all loan categories. But the more worrying trend for growth is the declining demand for loans.
'A Flawed Idea’: Why A BRICS Currency Is Overrated And Unlikely To Work
It’s not impossible for a BRICS currency to happen - but it would require a significant amount of pain that these countries don’t want to endure. If they get serious about really de-dollarizing, they will have to completely rebalance their economies.
Auto Loan Chaos: Is The Auto Debt Market Finally Nearing A Tipping Point?
Right now, the auto market’s showing signs of serious stress. After two years -- from 2020 to 2022 -- of short supplies, excess savings, and easy money, the vehicle market boomed. But now, the opposite’s happening.
There’s A Wall Of Corporate Debt Maturing
Most of the debt maturing in the next 3 years is held by companies near or already-at speculative credit ratings.
The Commercial Real Estate Market Is A Ticking Time Bomb For Small Banks
Over the last year, the net percentage of domestic banks tightening credit standards for commercial real estate loans has soared to 70% in Q1-2023.
A Global Earnings Recession Looms And Zombie Companies Are The Most Fragile
While the media’s busy focusing on the world’s banking issues (which will only amplify any economic downside), the earnings situation hasn’t gotten any better. Actually, it’s much worse.
The Global Savings Glut: How Excess Savings And Diminishing Returns Created A Debt-Trap For All Of Us
A savings glut means that there are too many excess savings compared to desired investments.
How An Inverted Yield Curve Actually Amplifies A Recession As Banks Tighten Credit
As the yield curve sinks into inversion, commercial banks tend to tighten lending standards (aka curtail credit).
Deflation And Slowing Growth: Why 2023 Will See Both Continue And Cause Fragility
Monetary policy acts with lag effects. Meaning that once the Fed eases/tightens, it’ll take many months (even years) for it to trickle through asset markets and the economy.
China’s Property Sector Sinking Fast As Debt Deflation Looms
The Chinese appetite for buying homes continues to evaporate.
The Housing Market Is Fragile: Downside As Real Estate Prices Fall
The housing market is more fragile than many expect as market liquidity disappears.
‘Triffin’s-Dilemma’: Why Smaller U.S. Deficits Are Increasing Global Fragility
The U.S. deficit will be roughly $1.4 trillion less compared to last year. And also $400 billion less than officials expected back in March. And while less government debt is considered a ‘good’ thing – it comes with a very costly catch.
A Global Trade And Earnings Recession Looms As Fed Overtightens
It doesn’t usually take much tightening to trigger some sort of crisis.
These Four Economic Indicators Show Further Downside Ahead
The Federal Reserve plans to continue tightening monetary policy, amplifying further stress at a time when the economy’s already rapidly eroding.
The Fed’s Tightening Is Creating Illiquidity Pockets And Greater Fragility
As financial tightening increases, so too will economic and financial stress (which always happens in credit-based systems).
China’s Fragile Property Sector Is A Problem For Global Growth
In China there is a wave of defaults coming in the property sector combined with diminishing returns that will indirectly bog down global growth.
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