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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. Please familiarize yourself with our full more

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Income, GDP, PMI, ISM Growth/Decline Trends
Heading into the Personal Income and Outlays report, GDP growth estimates of above 4% were common.
Every Inflation Measurement Is Increasing
The core year over year inflation increased 1.45 basis points from last month which isn’t a shock because of the easy comparison.
Expensive Valuations & Late Cycle Indicators
Investors are trying to figure out what it will take for the bull market to reach a new record high. Records have been set in the Russell 2000, the tech sector, and the S&P 400.
The Effects Of Heated Trade Rhetoric
The intensifying trade talk between America and the EU and China have been the number one cause of market volatility this year. 9 out of the first 9 S&P 500 firms reporting earnings in Q2 beat estimates.
Global Yield Curve, Manufacturing, Services & Trade Growth Trends
There have been a few months of international data showing weakness in manufacturing. June Markit manufacturing PMI is showing some signs of weakness and the Philly Fed and the Empire State Indexes is showing signs of a deceleration.
Will Commodities, S&P 500 & Debt Mean Revert?
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Are Equities Over-Owned By Households?
Americans have more stocks and mutual funds as a percentage of their assets since 1950 besides the tech bubble period.
Trade War: A Position Of Strength For…
Trade tensions have impacted the S&P 500 this year. By showing some factors which put China in a bind in this trade skirmish, we aren’t making a prediction on which country will win.
Real Wage Growth Usually Weak Before Recessions
There are many stories in the financial press about how wage growth is accelerating as the labor market tightens.
Avoid Investing Based On False Premises
Surprisingly, there are popular bearish narratives even as the stock market is a few percentage points away from its all-time high and the economy is in one of the greatest quarters of this expansion.
Is This As Good As It Gets For Growth?
The U.S. economy continues to show signs that the Q2 GDP growth rate might be above 4% which would be one of the best quarters of this expansion.
Is The Economy Overheating?
Ultimately, it’s irrelevant whether you think the Fed should hike rates or not because it is doing so. Using the Fed’s logic and viewing alternatives helps you determine if the Fed will continue hiking rates or if it will slow them down.
Small Banks Are Disappearing
Dodd-Frank makes the financial system less safe because big banks were allowed to gain an inordinate amount of market share.
Business Cycles Have Become Longer
Even though many countries are seeing economic weakness in 2018, the US is firing on all cylinders as it is now just 1 year away from being in the longest expansion since 1854.
Is The ‘Gig Economy’ Real?
While there are many positives, there are some negatives as well that come with the ‘gig economy’. For instance independent workers don’t get the same benefits as full-time employees.
End Of Economic Growth Or More Coming?
Investors and analysts never rest on their laurels if the current situation looks good; they are always focused on the bleeding edge of data.
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