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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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Weakest Economy In 4 Years
Friday, January 31, 2020 9:00 PM EDT
GDP growth of 2.1% sounds okay, but real final sales to domestic purchasers growth which excludes trade, inventory investment, and government spending was the lowest in 4 years. Consumer spending growth weakened.
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The Most Valuable Chart Of The Year
Friday, January 31, 2020 5:29 AM EDT
The Case Shiller home price index showed higher growth because of easier comps. Home price growth has bottomed. The pending home sales index missed estimates widely and fell sharply.
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Consumer Free Cash Flow Is High
Thursday, January 30, 2020 3:20 AM EDT
The amount of money consumers have left over after taxes, food, and energy is overall PCE divided by PCE excluding food and energy. That’s currently high compared to the past 3 decades.
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Review Of Primary Race & Yield Capping
Wednesday, January 29, 2020 5:52 AM EDT
November’s new home sales were revised lower and December’s reading missed the low end of the estimate range.
In this article: IHF
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EPS Growth Estimates & Stock Returns
Tuesday, January 28, 2020 5:39 AM EDT
The advanced Q4 GDP report will come out on January 30th and on the following day we will get the December PCE report.
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What Leading Indicators Index Means For Stocks
Friday, January 24, 2020 5:53 PM EDT
Stocks lapped the bottom of the Q4 2018 correction/mini bear market. Yearly comps for the S&P 500 will get tougher as the year goes on. Luckily, the comps for the leading index overall will get easier.
In this article: SPX
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It’s “So Easy To Make Money” In Everything
Friday, January 24, 2020 5:48 AM EDT
EPS growth doesn’t tell you where returns will end up. The Sharpe ratio for most major investments on average is 89%. This has been a great run for U.S. assets.
In this article: SPX
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The 2020 Election Is The Biggest Tail Risk
Thursday, January 23, 2020 1:19 AM EDT
It’s always interesting to see year-end price targets for the S&P 500 changed a few weeks into the year. The question is if firms making the changes in the first few weeks of the year are doing so in response to data or stock market moves.
In this article: SPX
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Why Stock Multiples Are So High
Wednesday, January 22, 2020 7:10 AM EDT
Because stocks have inflated PE multiples, analysts don’t have as many buy ratings. The average Russell 1000 share price is below the average analyst price target for the first time since 2004.
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How The Heat Affects Economic Data
Monday, January 20, 2020 10:51 PM EDT
In some cases highly unusual weather patterns impact economic data in a way that must be accepted as a one-time event that doesn’t imply a cyclical phase change.
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Demystifying The Confusing Retail Sales Report
Saturday, January 18, 2020 12:30 PM EDT
The best summary is to say the 2-year growth stacks fell slightly and estimates for real Q4 consumption growth fell decently. Q4 GDP growth will still be good because of trade.
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Will Stocks Be Disappointed With The 2020 Economy?
Thursday, January 16, 2020 10:33 PM EDT
The CPI and PPI reports imply core PCE inflation will increase. The bond market shows investors don’t see above 2% GDP growth in 2020. However, the rally in stocks in the past 13 months suggests equity investors see economic growth accelerating.
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Fed Ignores Inflation Which Is Eating Into Wages
Wednesday, January 15, 2020 11:08 PM EDT
Energy prices boosted headline inflation, while shelter inflation dragged down core CPI despite the rise in medical care costs.
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Euphoria Combined With 1.8% GDP Growth
Wednesday, January 15, 2020 6:30 AM EDT
Stocks are overbought and have gotten expensive even though estimates call for just 1.8% 2020 GDP growth. The consumer will be hurt if real wage growth continues to fall.
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Why Wage Growth Crashed In December
Tuesday, January 14, 2020 2:50 AM EDT
The December labor report showed another month of job creation. Wage growth was weak though as the sharp decline in non-supervisory and production wage growth in the past two months is troubling.
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Sentiment Index Broken By This Market
Friday, January 10, 2020 9:06 PM EDT
Stocks have rallied so much that sentiment indicators haven’t worked as contrarian signals for the past few years. It’s still not normal for stocks to be showing extreme greed or excessive optimism.
In this article: SPY
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