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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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257 to 272 of 771 Posts
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The Economy Needs Another Stimulus
Sunday, June 21, 2020 12:39 AM EDT
The jobless claims report was terrible on a rate of change basis. This is only one week of bad data, but if it continues, we won’t see anywhere close to a V-shaped recovery.
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Bearish Yet Long: The Definition Of FOMO
Friday, June 19, 2020 4:44 AM EDT
The U.S. stock market is in a highly unusual state even though there has been little movement in the past couple of days.
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Euphoria Limited To U.S. Stocks
Thursday, June 18, 2020 2:16 PM EDT
Retail traders aren’t driving the market higher; it’s fund managers. They were caught underweight U.S. equities in May even though the stock market has rallied significantly off the March 23rd low.
In this article: NDX
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Why The Fed’s Announcement Was Meaningless
Wednesday, June 17, 2020 10:12 AM EDT
The Fed’s latest announcement that it will buy individual corporate bonds sent people into a frenzy with some saying the markets are dead and others using it as an excuse to buy stocks.
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Narratives Change Like The Wind
Tuesday, June 16, 2020 1:30 AM EDT
Narratives tend to trail the market, meaning people come up with explanations of why the market moved after it happened. Effectively you can justify why any move happened.
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19 PE Multiple With Low Inflation
Sunday, June 14, 2020 11:26 AM EDT
We are always looking at valuations because that’s the backbone of investing. With extreme market volatility, the only way to stay sane is to have an understanding of what a business is worth.
In this article: SPX
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No Rate Hikes And No Rate Cuts?
Friday, June 12, 2020 11:00 AM EDT
The June labor report will probably have a smaller miscalculation. The household survey might have a higher response rate as the economy gets back to normal. The unemployment rate will probably fall even with the smaller error.
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Early Or Late Cycle Market?
Wednesday, June 10, 2020 11:06 PM EDT
Most indicators show retail sales growth is coming back. Currently, the economy and stock market are detached because stocks are doing well, while the economy is still in shambles despite its increase off the bottom.
In this article: SPX
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Is A 21% Correction Coming?
Tuesday, June 9, 2020 10:54 PM EDT
Consumer spending is improving. That makes sense because income growth was strong due to unemployment benefits and the stimulus checks. Plus, people are being allowed to spend more money as the country opens up.
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Best Labor Report In History: What Does It Mean?
Monday, June 8, 2020 8:02 PM EDT
There were 2.509 million jobs created in May which was above the 20.687 million jobs lost in April and dramatically above expectations for 7.725 million in losses.
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Consumer Faces A Major Problem
Friday, June 5, 2020 12:00 AM EDT
A consumer benefit cliff is coming if Congress doesn’t act. It seems unlikely that most people will get their jobs back by the end of July.
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Will The Economic Recovery Continue?
Thursday, June 4, 2020 1:00 AM EDT
In the past few weeks consumers have become more likely to say they will be comfortable going out sooner. 49% said they would be comfortable going out to eat in the next 1-3 months.
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Does The S&P 500 Deserve A 20 PE Multiple?
Wednesday, June 3, 2020 6:30 PM EDT
This market is the polar opposite of March. The financial media went from discussing a potential depression to discussing why stocks shouldn’t fall despite civil unrest and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression.
In this article: SPX
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Explaining The Better Than Average Returns
Tuesday, June 2, 2020 12:52 PM EDT
The stock market always climbs a wall of worry when it rises, but this increase has been a bit more extreme because the worries have become reality.
In this article: SPX
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The COVID Economy: More Income & Less Spending
Monday, June 1, 2020 12:12 PM EDT
This was the most unusual PCE report ever because income growth spiked to a record high and spending fell the most ever.
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Is The Recession Over?
Friday, May 29, 2020 1:58 PM EDT
The jobless claims report in the week of May 23rd improved from the prior week as there were 2.123 million initial claims which fell from 2.446 million.
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257 to 272 of 771 Posts
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