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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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Latest Posts
209 to 224 of 771 Posts
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A Potential Market Phase Change?
Monday, August 31, 2020 5:06 AM EDT
Let’s be clear, at Powell’s Jackson Hole speech he didn’t deliver anything groundbreaking. However, it doesn’t matter if the Fed’s policy won’t change much. It matters how it impacts the market.
Read
2020 Is Nothing Like 2009
Thursday, August 27, 2020 6:46 PM EDT
Consumer spending is fine now, but don’t delude yourself into thinking a $600 weekly decline in income doesn’t matter. People saved up in anticipation of this decline.
In this article: NDX
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Odd Recession Effects Continue
Wednesday, August 26, 2020 5:36 PM EDT
The housing market is doing really well. It’s causing homebuilder stocks to outperform the red-hot software stocks. Single family home sales are the highest since 2006. There never was a bust in housing this cycle.
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Unemployment Benefits Are Coming
Tuesday, August 25, 2020 11:16 PM EDT
The additional $300 in weekly unemployment benefits coming in September should help consumer spending.
Read
Pure Bubble Talk
Monday, August 24, 2020 8:11 PM EDT
The Fed won’t raise rates until 2024 according to economists. That’s what’s priced into markets.
In this article: WMT, AAPL, TSLA, MA, V
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Small Business Is In Trouble & Jobless Claims Spike
Saturday, August 22, 2020 6:40 PM EDT
Initial jobless claims in the week of August 15 rose from 971,000 to 1.016 million on a seasonally adjusted basis. The main question is if this is a new trend or a one-time blip.
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Is The Fed Hawkish Again?
Thursday, August 20, 2020 8:00 PM EDT
The Fed Minutes are released 3 weeks after meetings, so they usually don’t have large impacts on markets. However, this July’s Minutes caused stocks to sell off.
In this article: NDX
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Strong Earnings Revisions But There’s A Problem
Wednesday, August 19, 2020 11:40 PM EDT
Economists are looking for a slowdown in August now that the extra federal unemployment benefits are largely gone. However, jobless claims have fallen and same store sales growth has improved.
In this article: SPX
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Can The Economy Improve Before Consumers Run Out Of Money?
Wednesday, August 19, 2020 5:04 AM EDT
The jobless benefits going out are a mess with different states having different rules. The hope is the labor market improves enough to where this doesn’t matter much.
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What Will The New Economy Look Like?
Monday, August 17, 2020 11:18 PM EDT
For 10 years, investors were told that buying the dip wouldn’t work in a recession. However, the March bear market rewarded the dip buyers. Now there is no fear.
In this article: SPX
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Volatility Could Be Coming In The Fall
Saturday, August 15, 2020 12:53 PM EDT
With retail and professional investors practically all in on the stock market and it being near its record high, everyone wants to know what the catalyst will be for the next decline.
In this article: VIX
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How Sensitive Are Rates To Economic Growth & Inflation?
Friday, August 14, 2020 2:00 AM EDT
Inflation increased in the PPI and CPI reports. This is partially why the 10-year yield increased for 5 straight days. Higher yields could hurt tech stocks and precious metals.
In this article: SPX
Read
The Labor Market Is In A Race Against Time
Thursday, August 13, 2020 5:58 AM EDT
The unemployment rate has been falling fast, job creation in August might be better than July. If more checks go out in September, this will be far from a disaster for most consumers.
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Cyclical Recovery Coming?
Tuesday, August 11, 2020 11:00 PM EDT
Historically, the only time the market has viewed good economic news as bad news is when the Fed was expected to tighten monetary policy. This is a unique scenario though, so you must be open to various possibilities.
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Will The Labor Market Continue To Improve?
Monday, August 10, 2020 10:33 PM EDT
There is still plenty of room left in the labor market obviously. It’s just that the trend is towards more normalized job creation. This report slightly beat estimates for a 1.675 million increase.
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Is The Economy Back To Recovering Quickly?
Friday, August 7, 2020 6:00 PM EDT
Disposable income growth was positive in Q2 which helps explain why credit card debt fell in the recession. The student loan delinquency rate fell sharply.
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209 to 224 of 771 Posts
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