Tony Cherniawski | TalkMarkets | Page 12
President, CIO at The Practical Investor, LLC
Contributor's Links: The Practical Investor
Anthony M. Cherniawski is a principal of TPI. He has a Bachelor of Communication Arts degree from Michigan State University (1972). His business experience is as follows: Tony Cherniawski’s early success in the investment business came from a chance meeting with Sir John Templeton ...more

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VIX Utility In Question, SPX Rallies To Cycle Top
Even while the utility of the VIX as a fear indicator is in question, stocks rallied as did the US Dollar.
Markets Up After Election
SPX rallied to a high that was just 10 points beneath its August 15 all-time high. Should it decline beneath its Intermediate-term support at 2156.42 without beating its prior high it may be very bearish, as it implies exhaustion in the uptrend.
Vix Up, S&P Down - A Market In Turmoil Before The Election
The VIX hit a high this last week as the S&P 500 dived for nine straight days.
Weekend Update - Beneath The Surface Of The Market
Sometimes knowing what is happening beneath the surface tells you more than what we see on the surface of the markets. While the markets seem to be steady and lack volatility, the undercurrent is far from calm.
Weekend Update - Earnings, VIX And Crude In Spotlight
Earnings reports have begun, giving us a window to examine not only profitability but ability to service debt. Also, VIX closed above its Intermediate-term support at 13.29, leaving it on a buy signal.
Weekend Update - VIX And Gold Show Strength
VIX is putting out a buy signal; SPX is putting out a sell signal. The NDX and High Yield Bond Index have closed beneath support. Meanwhile gold consolidates at support but watch out below for the Shanghai index.
Weekend Update - October 7, 2016
Gold declined to challenge its Long-term support at 1251.95, closing just beneath it. It is due for a bounce, according to the Cycles Model. A probable target may be weekly Short-term resistance at 1321.93. A deeper low awaits Gold In late October.
Weekend Update - SPX Bounces, Challenges Its Short-Term Support
VIX​ made a new high off its seasonal low at 11.02 on August 9. However, it corrected back to its trendline. The next important milestone is Cycle Top resistance at 24.20 where a long-term breakout and a change of trend may occur.
Weekend Update - Banks Back In The News And Gold Ready For Final Surge
VIX broke out higher on Monday, but went into consolidation mode for the duration of options week. It closed beneath mid-Cycle support/resistance, but remains on a buy (SPX sell) signal. Also, banks are appearing back in the news.
Weekend Update - Cross-Asset Contagion
Let me introduce you to cross-asset contagion. Massive central bank stimulus with below zero rates and quantitative easing has led to dysfunctional markets, with even the negative correlation between stocks and bonds breaking down.
Weekend Update - Long View Of The Markets And Their Cycles
VIX challenged both Short-term and Intermediate-term resistance this week, but closed beneath the Short-term at 13.82. However, it has made a breakout above the last down-cycle high of 14.24.
Weekend Update - Look Out For Black Swans
The Cycles are suggesting a potential “Black Swan” event in multiple indexes coming imminently. Stocks, commodities and bonds, including treasuries, have been coiling for a big move for the last 15 months.
Weekend Update - Indexes Touch Highs Together
VIX extended its Master Cycle low by three weeks on Tuesday. Cycle extensions are rare, but often increase intensity on the swing back. The VIX closed higher than last week. This may be the end of a year-long retracement from August 2015 highs.
Weekend Update - A Truly Schizophrenic Market
VIX rallied early in the week before making a new low by the close. The Cycles Model suggests that the low is more than three weeks overdue. If so, payback may be coming in a very big way to those who have become complacent.
Who Knows What's Going On In The Markets
VIX rallied early in the week, but pulled back to the trendline by the close. This appears to be a valid reversal pattern. If so, payback may be coming in a very big way to those who have become complacent.
Are Markets Past Sustainability?
Have the markets gone beyond sustainability? We have been fortunate, so far. Could this be the beginning of the reversal of fortunes that we have been warned about?
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