Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 41
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Oil Prices And Rig Count
At what price do drillers add/reduce rigs this time? If one looks closely one can see a 2mo lag before drillers (XOP) (IEO) cut back on rigs in response to collapse of oil (USO) (OIL) prices.
Housing Starts Rise 20% ... Still Well Below Normal
Low rates do not boost lending! Low rates do not stimulate the economy! What is required for wider lending is a wider spread. In the current climate, I estimate that mortgage rates in the 5%-6% range would make banks more willing to lend.
American Apparel: Charney……..Unhinged
At this point one can say without reservation Dow Charney, the former Chief Executive Officer of American Apparel, Inc. is his own worst enemy…..
Supply, Supply, Supply
50% of the basic economic equation is supply. Too little of it, prices climb, too much, they fall.
Mortgage Credit Easing
The MCAI increased 0.5 percent to 122.0 in April. A decline in the MCAI indicates that lending standards are tightening, while increases in the index are indicative of a loosening of credit.
Absorbing Data & Decision Making - Part 2
This morning the monthly employment reports were released for April 2015. The Household Survey reported 148,523,000 employed which was 192,000 higher than March 2015.
Absorbing Data & Decision Making - Part 1
As both EFA and FXE fell, oil prices may have risen somewhat on concerns of global disruptions, but Hedge Funds were seeing losses with heavily levered currency and short US Treasury positions.
How Did Buffett Know Derivative Trade Would Work?
Warren Buffett’s derivatives wagers sapped earnings during the financial crisis at his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and were part of the reason the company lost its triple-A credit rating. Things are looking rosier now.
Lowest Initial Claims Reading In 15 Years
Before April 15, 2000 the last time we were at these levels was December 1, 1975 as Initial Claims rose into a recession.
Employment Continues To Accelerate
Trends shows up in the ‘High Frequency’ (weekly) indicators before we see them in the monthly reports. The weekly Gallup Job Creation and ASA Staffing Index continue to hit new all time highs...
Housing Data Still Bullish
The Monthly Supply of (new) Homes for Sale remains in positive territory at 5.3mos.
Houston Housing Market Was Very Strong In March
Supply, supply, supply. Right now it stands at 2.8 mos, well below the 4.6 mos national average. As long as it stays this low, pressure on pricing will remain upward.
Chemical Activity Indicates Further Market Gains
The Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB) was reported at 98.8.
The Vagaries Of The Energy Market
Energy prices should rise roughly back to where they were last summer. Some will consider this inflationary and there is likely to be a lot of chatter about it.
Houston Home Prices Continue To Defy Oil
Much has been said about the price of oil ($USO) and Houston. I’ve spoken about it many times so I’ll not go back into it. It comes down to supply.
S&P Intrinsic Value And Employment Update
The March 2015 employment reports caused many to express disappointment, but the Household Survey was higher by 34,000 and is in line or may be revealing a higher trend.
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