Scott Sumner | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Chair of Monetary Policy
Contributor's Links: The Money Illusion
Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He is also Professor Emeritus at Bentley University and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute. In his writing and research, Sumner specializes in monetary policy, the role of ...more

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Tyler Cowen On Recent Fed Policy
After mid-2008, the recession of 2008-09 was an aggregate demand shock—a severe decline in nominal spending.
Two Types Of Forecasting Errors
Tyler Cowen has an excellent Bloomberg article discussing the fact that economists did a poor job of forecasting the economy of 2023. But the article has one paragraph that contains a troubling ambiguity.
Ueda Hits The Right Notes
Some people have asked why I supported Japan’s decision to raise their inflation target from 0% to 2%. After all, money is roughly neutral in the long run, and by 2013 Japan had mostly adjusted to its near-zero inflation rate.
Nemo Judex In Causa Sua
The Latin phrase Nemo judex in causa sua can be roughly translated as: No man can judge his own cause. This ancient maxim is a bedrock principle of English common law.
Don’t Pigeonhole Me
It is impossible to reliably predict the business cycle; you’d be predicting Fed failures.
The Global Distribution Of AI Talent
Tech talent first arises in places with the right cultural attitudes toward STEM education and the resources necessary to educate that talent.
Excuses, Excuses
In 2023, the economics profession preserved its near-perfect record in terms of forecasting recessions—it’s always wrong.
Delete Fiscal Policy From Macro
In 1968, Congress enacted a major tax increase to control inflation, eliminating the budget deficit. It didn’t work. Monetary policy became more expansionary and inflation increased still further.
Is Inflation Actually Normalizing?
The Atlanta Fed wage tracker says hourly earnings are up between 5.2% and 5.4% over the past three months, depending on whether you use a weighted or unweighted series.
Why Not Fiscal Policy?
First, we need to be clear about what it means to use fiscal policy. There is a sense in which governments are always doing fiscal policy, as they always have some level of spending and taxation.
Were The 1960s A "Tightening Episode"?
If we wrongly see rising interest rates as tight money, we will fail to accurately predict the impact of an actual monetary tightening on the economy.
March Of 2025
Mark your calendars. Unemployment fell to 3.6% in March 2022. Now it’s 3.7%. If it’s still relatively low in March 2025, and if inflation has fallen close to the Fed’s 2% target, then the US will have achieved its first ever soft landing.
How Important Are The Issues?
Donald Trump has promised to pay off the entire national debt within 4 years: “We’re going to pay off debt — the $35 trillion in debt. We’re going to pay it off. We’re going to get it done fast, too.”
Charles Evans On The Fed’s 2024 Policy Review
It’s not hard to figure out what went wrong with the Fed’s FAIT policy initiative of 2020. Former Chicago Fed president Charles Evans has a new paper that discusses what went wrong and how to fix it.
The Wittgenstein Test
Wittgenstein’s insight has many applications in economics.
Some Thoughts On Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
Statistics may be neat, but real life is messy.
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